南开经济研究
南開經濟研究
남개경제연구
Nankai Economic Studies
2015年
1期
3~12
,共null页
需求调控 海外资产 资本不完全流动 有管理的浮动汇率制
需求調控 海外資產 資本不完全流動 有管理的浮動彙率製
수구조공 해외자산 자본불완전류동 유관리적부동회솔제
Monetary and Fiscal Policies; Oversea Assets; Imperfect Capital Flow;Managed Floating Exchange Rate
本文通过在标准的IS-LM—BP模型中考虑跨境金融资产和负债这一影响货币需求的因素，构建了资本不完全流动、有管理的浮动汇率制下的两国宏观调控模型，并考察货币政策和财政政策的效应。研究发现，长期里，货币政策不具有真实效应，财政政策会影响真实汇率、利率和物价，但影响力度和方向则取决于货币需求的利率弹性等因素。短期内，财政政策的效应取决于挤出效应的大小；货币政策可通过降低利率达到促进经济增长的目的。境外金融资本的流入将引起本国货币需求增加，利率上涨、本币升值，总产出下降。金融资本的流出将通过减少投资支出、扩大出口的途径实现“调结构、促增长”的目标。
本文通過在標準的IS-LM—BP模型中攷慮跨境金融資產和負債這一影響貨幣需求的因素，構建瞭資本不完全流動、有管理的浮動彙率製下的兩國宏觀調控模型，併攷察貨幣政策和財政政策的效應。研究髮現，長期裏，貨幣政策不具有真實效應，財政政策會影響真實彙率、利率和物價，但影響力度和方嚮則取決于貨幣需求的利率彈性等因素。短期內，財政政策的效應取決于擠齣效應的大小；貨幣政策可通過降低利率達到促進經濟增長的目的。境外金融資本的流入將引起本國貨幣需求增加，利率上漲、本幣升值，總產齣下降。金融資本的流齣將通過減少投資支齣、擴大齣口的途徑實現“調結構、促增長”的目標。
본문통과재표준적IS-LM—BP모형중고필과경금융자산화부채저일영향화폐수구적인소，구건료자본불완전류동、유관리적부동회솔제하적량국굉관조공모형，병고찰화폐정책화재정정책적효응。연구발현，장기리，화폐정책불구유진실효응，재정정책회영향진실회솔、리솔화물개，단영향력도화방향칙취결우화폐수구적리솔탄성등인소。단기내，재정정책적효응취결우제출효응적대소；화폐정책가통과강저리솔체도촉진경제증장적목적。경외금융자본적류입장인기본국화폐수구증가，리솔상창、본폐승치，총산출하강。금융자본적류출장통과감소투자지출、확대출구적도경실현“조결구、촉증장”적목표。
We develop a two country model of monetary and fiscal policies under imperfect capital flow and managed floating exchange rate and discuss the effects of the policies by incorporating the net oversea assets that has an impact on the demand for money in the IS- LM-BP model. We find that monetary policies will not have the real effects, and fiscal poli- cies will have the effect on the real exchange rate, interest rate and price level in the long run, but the extent and directions of the effects depend on interest elasticity of demand for money and other factors. In the short run, the effects of fiscal policy depend on the crowding-out effects, and monetary policy has effect on real output through decreasing the interest rate. An increase of capital inflow will result in an increase in demand for money and interest rate, appreciation of local currency, and real output. In contrast, an increase of capital outflow will lead to decrease of capital expenditure and increase of export, and thus change the proportions of demand components.
