南开经济研究
南開經濟研究
남개경제연구
Nankai Economic Studies
2015年
1期
13~31
,共null页
地方政府债务 经济增长 动态随机一般均衡模型 动态面板门槛模型
地方政府債務 經濟增長 動態隨機一般均衡模型 動態麵闆門檻模型
지방정부채무 경제증장 동태수궤일반균형모형 동태면판문함모형
Local Government Debts; Economic Growth; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model; Dynamic Panel Threshold Model
本文利用动态随机一般均衡模型和动态面板模型分析地方政府债务与经济增长的关系,并利用动态面板门槛模型探寻政府债务适度规模。数值模拟结果显示:短期内政府债务对经济增长起到促进作用,但长期内政府债务对经济增长无显著作用。实证结果表明:地方政府债务与经济增长存在明显的非线性关系,政府债务阈值为20%。当债务负担率低于阈值时,地方政府债务促进经济增长;反之,当债务负担率大于阈值时,地方政府债务与经济增长不存在显著关系。
本文利用動態隨機一般均衡模型和動態麵闆模型分析地方政府債務與經濟增長的關繫,併利用動態麵闆門檻模型探尋政府債務適度規模。數值模擬結果顯示:短期內政府債務對經濟增長起到促進作用,但長期內政府債務對經濟增長無顯著作用。實證結果錶明:地方政府債務與經濟增長存在明顯的非線性關繫,政府債務閾值為20%。噹債務負擔率低于閾值時,地方政府債務促進經濟增長;反之,噹債務負擔率大于閾值時,地方政府債務與經濟增長不存在顯著關繫。
본문이용동태수궤일반균형모형화동태면판모형분석지방정부채무여경제증장적관계,병이용동태면판문함모형탐심정부채무괄도규모。수치모의결과현시:단기내정부채무대경제증장기도촉진작용,단장기내정부채무대경제증장무현저작용。실증결과표명:지방정부채무여경제증장존재명현적비선성관계,정부채무역치위20%。당채무부담솔저우역치시,지방정부채무촉진경제증장;반지,당채무부담솔대우역치시,지방정부채무여경제증장불존재현저관계。
This Paper investigates the relationship between local government debts and the economic growth by employing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and dynamic panel threshold model. The results of numerical simulation show that the impact of government debt on economic growth is positive in the short term, but the impact is insignificant in the long run. An empirical analysis of the county-level panel data of one Chinese western province shows that there is an obvious nonlinear relationship between local government debts and the economic growth, with the debt threshold being 20%. When the government debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than the threshold, the impact of local government debts on economic growth is positive; when the ratio is higher than the threshold, the impact is not significant.