CAJ | 학술논문

参照Tsung-wu Ho（2001）假设政府财政支出的目标是实现居民效用最大化,将政府支出作为内生变量纳入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,分析和预测利率市场化进程中,均衡利率上升对中国财政政策效应的影响。模型的数值波动模拟显示,均衡利率上升能有效改善经济结构,减小产出和通胀面对技术冲击、财政与货币政策冲击的波动。脉冲响应结果显示,积极的财政政策对投资和消费存在挤出效应,但是短期内能够有效的促进经济增长。利率市场化进程中均衡利率上升使得消费和投资面对政府财政政策冲击时的挤出效应增强,但由于利率上升带来经济结构的调整,短期内政府支出冲击反而能更有效地刺激经济增长,长期内对产出的负向影响并没有明显增强。
삼조Tsung-wu Ho（2001）가설정부재정지출적목표시실현거민효용최대화,장정부지출작위내생변량납입신개은사동태수궤일반균형모형,분석화예측리솔시장화진정중,균형리솔상승대중국재정정책효응적영향。모형적수치파동모의현시,균형리솔상승능유효개선경제결구,감소산출화통창면대기술충격、재정여화폐정책충격적파동。맥충향응결과현시,적겁적재정정책대투자화소비존재제출효응,단시단기내능구유효적촉진경제증장。리솔시장화진정중균형리솔상승사득소비화투자면대정부재정정책충격시적제출효응증강,단유우리솔상승대래경제결구적조정,단기내정부지출충격반이능경유효지자격경제증장,장기내대산출적부향영향병몰유명현증강。
Assuming that the government＇s target of fiscal expenditure is to realize the residents＇ utility maximization,we take government spending as endogenous variables and nest into the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. By calibration and simulating a DSGE model,we explain,analysis and predict the fiscal policy effects of interest rate liberalization in China. The numerical simulation show that increasing interest rates can improve the economic structure and offset fluctuation facing with technological shocks,monetary policy shocks and fiscal policy shocks; Impulse response analysis show positive fiscal policy can crowd out investment and consumption,but in the short term can effectively promote economic growth; increasing interest rates strength the effect of crowding out in the consumption and investment.