CAJ | 학술논문

采用VEC模型和EGARCH模型实证研究金融因素和沪铜期货价格之间的关系，传导分析结果显示：汇率、外汇储备和货币供给量的变动通过不同的传导方式对期铜价格产生影响，在短期内各变量的变动均会使得期铜价格产生较明显的波动；而从长期来看，汇率和外汇储备的冲击效果会逐渐消失，但货币供给量的冲击效果具有很长的持续性。根据风险分析结果和信息冲击曲线得出，期铜价格波动的风险主要来源于外汇储备的变动，并且金融因素对期铜价格波动的影响具有明显的非对称性。
채용VEC모형화EGARCH모형실증연구금융인소화호동기화개격지간적관계，전도분석결과현시：회솔、외회저비화화폐공급량적변동통과불동적전도방식대기동개격산생영향，재단기내각변량적변동균회사득기동개격산생교명현적파동；이종장기래간，회솔화외회저비적충격효과회축점소실，단화폐공급량적충격효과구유흔장적지속성。근거풍험분석결과화신식충격곡선득출，기동개격파동적풍험주요래원우외회저비적변동，병차금융인소대기동개격파동적영향구유명현적비대칭성。
By adopting VEC model and EGARCH model, the study empirically analyzes the relationship between financial factors and SHFE copper futures market prices volatility. The results show that changes in the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and money supply will affect copper prices distinctly in different ways. In the short term, copper price will fluctuate drastically under the above impact. In the long-term, the impact of the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves will gradually disappear, while the effect of money supply shocks will last for long. According to the results of the risk analysis and impact curves, the risk of copper price volatility mainly derives from changes in foreign reserves, and the impact of copper price volatility exerted by financial factors has a significant feature of asymmetry.