CAJ | 학술논문

为考察我国碳排放强度地区差异的变动趋势及其影响因素,从而为政府制定地区的碳排放政策提供数据参考,本文基于1995—2012年省际碳排放数据,在描述性统计及地区收敛性检验基础上,对我国碳排放强度的地区差异及影响因素进行了分析。结果显示：我国四大区域碳排放强度存在较大差异,中西部地区碳排放强度较高,且中部省区间差异较大;从变异系数来看,地区间碳排放强度的差异未出现缩小态势;我国地区间碳排放强度存在σ收敛、绝对收敛及条件收敛特征;经济发展水平对碳排放强度下降起促进作用,而工业化则有抑制作用;要实现我国碳排放强度目标,关键是要限制高耗能高排放行业的发展,调整重化工业为主导的产业结构。
위고찰아국탄배방강도지구차이적변동추세급기영향인소,종이위정부제정지구적탄배방정책제공수거삼고,본문기우1995—2012년성제탄배방수거,재묘술성통계급지구수렴성검험기출상,대아국탄배방강도적지구차이급영향인소진행료분석。결과현시：아국사대구역탄배방강도존재교대차이,중서부지구탄배방강도교고,차중부성구간차이교대;종변이계수래간,지구간탄배방강도적차이미출현축소태세;아국지구간탄배방강도존재σ수렴、절대수렴급조건수렴특정;경제발전수평대탄배방강도하강기촉진작용,이공업화칙유억제작용;요실현아국탄배방강도목표,관건시요한제고모능고배방행업적발전,조정중화공업위주도적산업결구。
The paper aims to review the trend and factors of regional difference of intensity of carbon emission in China and give data for government policy. Using the cross-provincial carbon emission data between 1995 and 2012, it analyzes the difference and factors of regional intensity of carbon emission in China based on the descriptive statistics and regional convergence test. The results are as follows： there exist great differences in the intensity of carbon emission in four regions in China, the intensity of carbon emission is relatively high in the central and western regions, and the difference is relatively great among the provinces of the central region ; as far as the differentiation coefficient is concerned, the regional difference of intensity of carbon emission isn＇t diminishing; there exist o- convergence, absolute convergence and conditional convergence in the interregional intensity of carbon emission in China; the level of economic development plays a positive role in the fall in intensity of carbon emission while the industrialization plays an inhibiting role ; and the key is to restrict the development of industries with high energy consumption and emission and adjust the heavy and chemical industry-oriented industrial structure to achieve the aim of intensity of carbon emission in China.