CAJ | 학술논문

根据《中国统计年鉴》（2003-2012）,选取了国内10个省市工业污染环境治理投资与省内生产总值的面板数据进行实证研究。论文通过建立工业污染环境治理投资与经济增长的长期均衡模型来说明工业污染治理在长期能作用于各种因素从而带动经济增长,并通过建立短期波动模型来体现不同省市在短期受内部和外部制约因素作用的差异,得出了各省市两者之间的长期趋势方程与短期波动方程。结果显示,长期来看,当治理投入增长较少时（增长低于一倍）,对经济的增长有反作用;当治理投入增长较多时（增长高于一倍）,对经济具有增长作用,但随着治理投入越大,所带来的经济增长效率呈现下降趋势。但是,由于每个省市所受的内外因素的影响不同,在短期内会对长期均衡方程有所偏离。这对于污染治理决策具有重要借鉴意义。
근거《중국통계년감》（2003-2012）,선취료국내10개성시공업오염배경치리투자여성내생산총치적면판수거진행실증연구。논문통과건립공업오염배경치리투자여경제증장적장기균형모형래설명공업오염치리재장기능작용우각충인소종이대동경제증장,병통과건립단기파동모형래체현불동성시재단기수내부화외부제약인소작용적차이,득출료각성시량자지간적장기추세방정여단기파동방정。결과현시,장기래간,당치리투입증장교소시（증장저우일배）,대경제적증장유반작용;당치리투입증장교다시（증장고우일배）,대경제구유증장작용,단수착치리투입월대,소대래적경제증장효솔정현하강추세。단시,유우매개성시소수적내외인소적영향불동,재단기내회대장기균형방정유소편리。저대우오염치리결책구유중요차감의의。
Based on the China Statistical Yearbook（2003-2012）,the paper chooses the panel data of investments in environmental governance towards industrial pol ution and GDP of ten provinces in China. The paper conducts a co-integration analysis with the utilization of Eviews and SPSS, and it works out co-integration regression equations of al ten provinces that have been chosen, finding out that in the long run,the increase of investments in environmental governance towards industrial pol ution wil relatively bring economic suffering when the increase of investments are low（ less than one time） ,and bring economic growth when the increase of investments are high （more than one time）. However,the influences caused by both the external and internal con-straints of the ten sample provinces are different,which wil bring deviations to the long-term equi-librium equations. Both of the models have important significances for decision-making of pol ution control.