软科学
軟科學
연과학
Soft Science
2015年
4期
67~70
,共null页
经济增长 碳排放 门槛效应
經濟增長 碳排放 門檻效應
경제증장 탄배방 문함효응
economic growth; carbon emission; threshold effect
依据"碳排放库兹涅茨曲线"假说,二氧化碳排放量随着经济的增长将呈现出非线性变化。基于Hansen发展的门槛面板模型,利用2000~2011年我国省际面板数据样本,对经济增长与碳排放之间的非线性关系及其形成机制进行了实证研究,结果表明:经济增长与碳排放之间呈现出显著的非线性关系;产业结构、技术水平和能源消费结构在经济增长与碳排放关系中表现出显著的门槛效应,当这些门槛变量达到或超出一定的门槛值时,经济增长与碳排放之间的关系会发生显著的变化。
依據"碳排放庫玆涅茨麯線"假說,二氧化碳排放量隨著經濟的增長將呈現齣非線性變化。基于Hansen髮展的門檻麵闆模型,利用2000~2011年我國省際麵闆數據樣本,對經濟增長與碳排放之間的非線性關繫及其形成機製進行瞭實證研究,結果錶明:經濟增長與碳排放之間呈現齣顯著的非線性關繫;產業結構、技術水平和能源消費結構在經濟增長與碳排放關繫中錶現齣顯著的門檻效應,噹這些門檻變量達到或超齣一定的門檻值時,經濟增長與碳排放之間的關繫會髮生顯著的變化。
의거"탄배방고자열자곡선"가설,이양화탄배방량수착경제적증장장정현출비선성변화。기우Hansen발전적문함면판모형,이용2000~2011년아국성제면판수거양본,대경제증장여탄배방지간적비선성관계급기형성궤제진행료실증연구,결과표명:경제증장여탄배방지간정현출현저적비선성관계;산업결구、기술수평화능원소비결구재경제증장여탄배방관계중표현출현저적문함효응,당저사문함변량체도혹초출일정적문함치시,경제증장여탄배방지간적관계회발생현저적변화。
According to Hypothesis of Carbon emission Kuznets curve( CKC),with economic growth,carbon emissions will show nonlinear changes. In this paper,using panel threshold model proposed by Hansen( 1999),and the panel data of Chinese provincial level from 2000 to 2011,to analysis the nonlinear relationship and the mechanism of its formation between economic growth and carbon emissions. Results show that: between economic growth and carbon emissions,showing a significant nonlinear relationship; the industrial structure,technological level and energy consumption structure have threshold effect on the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions,when the threshold variable beyond a certain threshold,the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions will change dramatically.