软科学
軟科學
연과학
Soft Science
2015年
4期
119~123
,共null页
房价收入比 不动产泡沫 可支配收入增长率
房價收入比 不動產泡沫 可支配收入增長率
방개수입비 불동산포말 가지배수입증장솔
housing price-to-income ratio; housing bubble; household disposable income growth
基于永久性收入理论,引入家庭可支配预期收入增长率,构建了家庭对房产的可支付模型,推导出房价收入比的动态泡沫临界值区间,利用2002~2013年数据对中国36个城市不动产市场价格泡沫进行实证研究。分析得出以下结论:本地居民可支配收入增长率对房价收入比泡沫临界值具有重要影响,并呈正相关,实证分析表明中国城市动态临界值区间是6.33~11.62,城市住宅不动产市场呈结构性泡沫;城市住宅不动产市场价格泡沫存在由东部向中西部、一线城市向二、三线城市间的传导,2012年开始,部分二、三线城市出现去泡沫化现象。
基于永久性收入理論,引入傢庭可支配預期收入增長率,構建瞭傢庭對房產的可支付模型,推導齣房價收入比的動態泡沫臨界值區間,利用2002~2013年數據對中國36箇城市不動產市場價格泡沫進行實證研究。分析得齣以下結論:本地居民可支配收入增長率對房價收入比泡沫臨界值具有重要影響,併呈正相關,實證分析錶明中國城市動態臨界值區間是6.33~11.62,城市住宅不動產市場呈結構性泡沫;城市住宅不動產市場價格泡沫存在由東部嚮中西部、一線城市嚮二、三線城市間的傳導,2012年開始,部分二、三線城市齣現去泡沫化現象。
기우영구성수입이론,인입가정가지배예기수입증장솔,구건료가정대방산적가지부모형,추도출방개수입비적동태포말림계치구간,이용2002~2013년수거대중국36개성시불동산시장개격포말진행실증연구。분석득출이하결론:본지거민가지배수입증장솔대방개수입비포말림계치구유중요영향,병정정상관,실증분석표명중국성시동태림계치구간시6.33~11.62,성시주택불동산시장정결구성포말;성시주택불동산시장개격포말존재유동부향중서부、일선성시향이、삼선성시간적전도,2012년개시,부분이、삼선성시출현거포말화현상。
Based on the theory of permanent income theory,this paper first invents the concept of dynamic housing price-toincome ratio,then constructs the model of the critical value interval of dynamic housing price-to-income ratio,and finally does empirical study on the residential real estate price bubbles by using annual data from the 36 cities. The results show household disposable income growth has great influence on real estate bubbles,the critical value interval of dynamic housing price-to-income ratio is 6. 33 to 11. 62,a structural real estate bubble exists in China. There exists conductivity on urban price bubbles of residential real estate from east to middle and west china,from first-tier cities to lower-tier cities. There exists off-bubble phenomenon on chinese residential real estate since the implementation of property-market tightening policy from 2012.