国际经贸探索
國際經貿探索
국제경무탐색
International Economics and Trade Research
2015年
4期
16~29
,共null页
煤炭 焦炭 社会网络分析 中心性 核心-边缘结构
煤炭 焦炭 社會網絡分析 中心性 覈心-邊緣結構
매탄 초탄 사회망락분석 중심성 핵심-변연결구
coal; coke; social network analysis; centrality; core-periphery structure
根据2003。2012年煤炭和焦炭的国际贸易数据,采用社会网络分析方法,从贸易关系和贸易强度两个角度研究了这两种商品的贸易格局及其在样本期内的变化。分析显示,煤炭、焦炭贸易网络相对稳定但结构松散。当面对金融危机时。许多国家倾向于寻求更多的贸易伙伴以分散风险,但处于常态时则存在区域化发展的趋势。运用“核心-边缘结构模型”分别分析煤炭、焦炭贸易的无权网络和加权网络(以两国间贸易规模为权数),并将两种网络形成的核心区域进行交叉分析发现:核心国家可细分为绝对核心国家、强度型核心国家和关系型核心国家,各类核心国家整体稳定,但局部存在着规律性的变化趋势,且“关系结构”比“强度结构”更为稳定。金砖国家(巴西除外)和部分发达国家在核心区域中地位突出,但大部分贸易关系和贸易强度较大的国家为发达国家,发展中国家的重要性正在日益显现。根据结论可知,对煤炭和焦炭进行深加工处理是降低流通成本和拓展贸易范围的重要方法,营造公平的贸易环境对煤炭和焦炭贸易的健康发展格外重要。此外还应设法降低外部冲击可能给煤炭和焦炭贸易带来的负面影响。
根據2003。2012年煤炭和焦炭的國際貿易數據,採用社會網絡分析方法,從貿易關繫和貿易彊度兩箇角度研究瞭這兩種商品的貿易格跼及其在樣本期內的變化。分析顯示,煤炭、焦炭貿易網絡相對穩定但結構鬆散。噹麵對金融危機時。許多國傢傾嚮于尋求更多的貿易夥伴以分散風險,但處于常態時則存在區域化髮展的趨勢。運用“覈心-邊緣結構模型”分彆分析煤炭、焦炭貿易的無權網絡和加權網絡(以兩國間貿易規模為權數),併將兩種網絡形成的覈心區域進行交扠分析髮現:覈心國傢可細分為絕對覈心國傢、彊度型覈心國傢和關繫型覈心國傢,各類覈心國傢整體穩定,但跼部存在著規律性的變化趨勢,且“關繫結構”比“彊度結構”更為穩定。金磚國傢(巴西除外)和部分髮達國傢在覈心區域中地位突齣,但大部分貿易關繫和貿易彊度較大的國傢為髮達國傢,髮展中國傢的重要性正在日益顯現。根據結論可知,對煤炭和焦炭進行深加工處理是降低流通成本和拓展貿易範圍的重要方法,營造公平的貿易環境對煤炭和焦炭貿易的健康髮展格外重要。此外還應設法降低外部遲擊可能給煤炭和焦炭貿易帶來的負麵影響。
근거2003。2012년매탄화초탄적국제무역수거,채용사회망락분석방법,종무역관계화무역강도량개각도연구료저량충상품적무역격국급기재양본기내적변화。분석현시,매탄、초탄무역망락상대은정단결구송산。당면대금융위궤시。허다국가경향우심구경다적무역화반이분산풍험,단처우상태시칙존재구역화발전적추세。운용“핵심-변연결구모형”분별분석매탄、초탄무역적무권망락화가권망락(이량국간무역규모위권수),병장량충망락형성적핵심구역진행교차분석발현:핵심국가가세분위절대핵심국가、강도형핵심국가화관계형핵심국가,각류핵심국가정체은정,단국부존재착규률성적변화추세,차“관계결구”비“강도결구”경위은정。금전국가(파서제외)화부분발체국가재핵심구역중지위돌출,단대부분무역관계화무역강도교대적국가위발체국가,발전중국가적중요성정재일익현현。근거결론가지,대매탄화초탄진행심가공처리시강저류통성본화탁전무역범위적중요방법,영조공평적무역배경대매탄화초탄무역적건강발전격외중요。차외환응설법강저외부충격가능급매탄화초탄무역대래적부면영향。
Using the international trade data of coal and coke from 2003 to 2012, this paper studies the sample period's trade pattems and changes in the two kinds of commodities from the perspective of trade relation and trade intensity with the method of social network analysis. It shows that the trade network of coal and coke is relatively stable but the structure is loose. When the financial crisis happens, many countries tend to seek more trade partners to reduce the risk, but the trend is regionalization when it is in the normal state. It also finds that the core countries can be divided into absolute core countries, intense core countries and relational core countries; all the core countries are basically stable, but there are some regular change trends in part of the network, and the structure constructed by trade relation is more stable than trade intensity. The BRIC countries (except Brazil) and some developed countries (such as Australia, Germany, United States, etc. ) have a prominent position in the core area, but most of the countries with greater trade relation and trade intensity are developed countries, but the developing countries are becoming important increasingly. Therefore, it is an important method to reduce the circulation cost and expand the scope of trade through the deep processing of coal and coke, and it is important to create a fair trade environment for the healthy development of coal and coke trade. In addition, it is necessary to try best to reduce the negative effect of extemal shocks on coal and coke trade.