CAJ | 학술논문

运用CGE模型，对TPP和RCEP谈判最终三种结果对各成员国可能造成的影响进行评估。结果显示，如果RCEP和TPP均能在2015年达成全部商品贸易自由化，RCEP成员国和美国都能够从贸易自由化中获得较大的收益。并且从福利变化的角度看，中日韩三国获益较大；如果TPP建成而RCEP不能建成,美国获益最大，中国将会遭受巨大的负面冲击：如果RCEP建成而TPP没有建成，RCEP成员国的福利明显增加、GDP快速增长，其中尤其是中日韩三国的福利水平显著提高，而关国的福利水平恶化、GDP降低。因此，中国目前应重点推动RCEP的建设。
운용CGE모형，대TPP화RCEP담판최종삼충결과대각성원국가능조성적영향진행평고。결과현시，여과RCEP화TPP균능재2015년체성전부상품무역자유화，RCEP성원국화미국도능구종무역자유화중획득교대적수익。병차종복리변화적각도간，중일한삼국획익교대；여과TPP건성이RCEP불능건성,미국획익최대，중국장회조수거대적부면충격：여과RCEP건성이TPP몰유건성，RCEP성원국적복리명현증가、GDP쾌속증장，기중우기시중일한삼국적복이수평현저제고，이관국적복이수평악화、GDP강저。인차，중국목전응중점추동RCEP적건설。
Using the CGE model, the paper makes an analysis of the economic effect of TPP and RCEP on the members. The results indicate that all the members of RCEP and USA can benefit a lot, but from the perspective of welfare changes, China, Japan and Korea will benefit more from RCEP and TPP negotiations; if TPP were established but RCEP were not, USA would obtain the largest benefit, but China would get negative shocks from TPP negotiations; if RCEP were established but TPP were not, all the members of RCEP would get benefits, but USA would get losses from RCEP negotiations. Therefore, China at the current stage should strongly promote RCEP negotiations.