CAJ | 학술논문

美国频繁对外作战导致其财政赤字不断恶化,从战争的视角探析世界金融危机频发的根源,有利于揭示出＂美元霸权＂的真正动机。在新开放宏观经济学研究范式的基础上,考虑到美元的中心地位,文章引入一国货币为国际储备货币,构建了具有微观基础的两国一般均衡模型,系统考察了储备货币发行国的财政冲击对世界实际利率和全球经济的影响。结果显示,美国巨额战争开支引致的财政恶化推高了世界利率,当利率上升超出稳定区间所要求的界限时,便会刺破泡沫,诱发危机。美国发动的阿富汗和伊拉克两场战争是本轮金融危机的重要诱因,而潜藏在战争背后的＂美元霸权＂才是本轮危机的实质根源。为应对＂美元霸权＂,中国应积极推进人民币国际化。
미국빈번대외작전도치기재정적자불단악화,종전쟁적시각탐석세계금융위궤빈발적근원,유리우게시출＂미원패권＂적진정동궤。재신개방굉관경제학연구범식적기출상,고필도미원적중심지위,문장인입일국화폐위국제저비화폐,구건료구유미관기출적량국일반균형모형,계통고찰료저비화폐발행국적재정충격대세계실제리솔화전구경제적영향。결과현시,미국거액전쟁개지인치적재정악화추고료세계리솔,당리솔상승초출은정구간소요구적계한시,편회자파포말,유발위궤。미국발동적아부한화이랍극량장전쟁시본륜금융위궤적중요유인,이잠장재전쟁배후적＂미원패권＂재시본륜위궤적실질근원。위응대＂미원패권＂,중국응적겁추진인민폐국제화。
The United States frequently wages war which worsening its budget deficit. To study the root causes of the financial crisis from the perspective of the war, it is helpful to reveal the real motive of ＂dollar hegemony＂. Based on the paradigm of the new open economy macroeconomics, considering the central role of the U.S. dollar, this paper introduces a national currency as an international reserve currency, builds a two-country general equilibrium model with microfoundation, and analyzes the influence of the fiscal shock of the issuer of reserve currency to the world real interest rate and the global economy. The results show that American fiscal deterioration caused by the huge war spending drives up the world real interest rate. When the word interest rate rises beyond the boundaries of the required stability range, it will pierce the bubble and induce the crisis. The two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq started by America are important incentives of the financial crisis, and the ＂dollar hegemony＂ behind the war is the substantial cause of the crisis. In response to the ＂dollar hegemony＂, China should actively promote the internationalization of RMB.