CAJ | 학술논문

根据供销系统490家农产品批发市场的调查数据,本文利用多元回归模型分析了市场财政扶持在扩大交易规模、带动就业和带动农户发展方面的政策效果,并采用倾向得分匹配方法讨论了来自样本自选择偏误的内生性问题对评价结果的影响。多元回归分析结果显示财政扶持对农产品批发市场交易规模提升和带动就业人数具有显著促进作用,但对带动农户数的影响不显著。在利用倾向得分匹配方法控制了内生性问题的偏误后,财政扶持对农产品批发市场交易额、带动就业人数和带动农户数的影响均不显著,说明忽略内生性问题会导致对财政扶持政策效果的高估。
근거공소계통490가농산품비발시장적조사수거,본문이용다원회귀모형분석료시장재정부지재확대교역규모、대동취업화대동농호발전방면적정책효과,병채용경향득분필배방법토론료래자양본자선택편오적내생성문제대평개결과적영향。다원회귀분석결과현시재정부지대농산품비발시장교역규모제승화대동취업인수구유현저촉진작용,단대대동농호수적영향불현저。재이용경향득분필배방법공제료내생성문제적편오후,재정부지대농산품비발시장교역액、대동취업인수화대동농호수적영향균불현저,설명홀략내생성문제회도치대재정부지정책효과적고고。
Based on the investigation data of 490 markets in the cooperative system, the effects on transaction scale, employment and farmer development of public financial support for agricultural product wholesale market are analyzed by multiple regression models, and the causal inference bias related to sample self selection is discussed by using propensity score matching method. The regression result show that the public financial support has significant effects on the transaction scale and the employment of the wholesale market, but if the causal inference bias related to sample self selection is controlled,these effects will not become significant, which means the effects of public financial support will be overevaluated by the ordinary regression model.