南京审计学院学报
南京審計學院學報
남경심계학원학보
2015年
2期
37~45
,共null页
金融发展 金融非均衡发展 灰色预测 二元结构 农村经济 农村金融 新型城镇化 金融市场改革 城市金融
金融髮展 金融非均衡髮展 灰色預測 二元結構 農村經濟 農村金融 新型城鎮化 金融市場改革 城市金融
금융발전 금융비균형발전 회색예측 이원결구 농촌경제 농촌금융 신형성진화 금융시장개혁 성시금융
financial development; unbalanced development of finance; Grey Prediction; dual structure; rural economy; rural finance; new urbanization; financial market reform; urban finance
从城乡金融存贷款额、城乡金融资产、城乡金融化水平等三方面对1978—2012年间我国城乡金融非均衡化现象进行全面测度，并运用灰色预测模型对未来我国城乡金融发展水平进行预测及检验，结果显示：从城乡金融发展的视角来看，我国金融发展仍然处于非均衡状态；在政策等环境不变的前提下，我国城乡金融发展绝对差异水平将继续扩大，但相对差异水平在逐渐缩小。
從城鄉金融存貸款額、城鄉金融資產、城鄉金融化水平等三方麵對1978—2012年間我國城鄉金融非均衡化現象進行全麵測度，併運用灰色預測模型對未來我國城鄉金融髮展水平進行預測及檢驗，結果顯示：從城鄉金融髮展的視角來看，我國金融髮展仍然處于非均衡狀態；在政策等環境不變的前提下，我國城鄉金融髮展絕對差異水平將繼續擴大，但相對差異水平在逐漸縮小。
종성향금융존대관액、성향금융자산、성향금융화수평등삼방면대1978—2012년간아국성향금융비균형화현상진행전면측도，병운용회색예측모형대미래아국성향금융발전수평진행예측급검험，결과현시：종성향금융발전적시각래간，아국금융발전잉연처우비균형상태；재정책등배경불변적전제하，아국성향금융발전절대차이수평장계속확대，단상대차이수평재축점축소。
This paper makes a comprehensive measurement on the phenomenon of unbalanced development of finance in urban and rural areas from 1978 to 2012 from such three aspects as financial deposit loan,financial assets,and financial development level between urban and rural areas. And the Grey Prediction model is used to test and predict the level of financial development in urban and rural areas in the future. The result shows that,from the perspective of urban and rural financial development,the financial development in our country is still in a non-equilibrium state; in the climate in which policy has been left unchanged,the absolute difference of financial development between urban and rural areas will continue to expand,while the relative difference is gradually shrinking.
