南京审计学院学报
南京審計學院學報
남경심계학원학보
2015年
2期
46~54
,共null页
居民储蓄率 房价上涨 房地产政策 资金流量 预防性储蓄 房价波动 房地产经济 住房政策
居民儲蓄率 房價上漲 房地產政策 資金流量 預防性儲蓄 房價波動 房地產經濟 住房政策
거민저축솔 방개상창 방지산정책 자금류량 예방성저축 방개파동 방지산경제 주방정책
household saving ratio; rising house prices; real estate policy; cash flow; precautionary saving; house prices volatility; real estate economy; housing policy
我国大陆的高储蓄与高房价是两个令人关注的经济现象。一些学者认为高房价导致了居民的预防性储蓄，从而推高了中国大陆的储蓄率，这种观点既违背了传统的财富效应，也与国际经验相悖。基于2000年至2012年资金流量表的相关数据研究发现，居民储蓄的变动只能解释我国总储蓄上升的35%。进一步利用我国大陆35个城市的面板数据分别建立静态、动态、空间面板、面板联立方程模型，实证检验房价与居民储蓄之间的关系后发现，房价的上升会提升居民储蓄的说法无法得到实证检验的支持。
我國大陸的高儲蓄與高房價是兩箇令人關註的經濟現象。一些學者認為高房價導緻瞭居民的預防性儲蓄，從而推高瞭中國大陸的儲蓄率，這種觀點既違揹瞭傳統的財富效應，也與國際經驗相悖。基于2000年至2012年資金流量錶的相關數據研究髮現，居民儲蓄的變動隻能解釋我國總儲蓄上升的35%。進一步利用我國大陸35箇城市的麵闆數據分彆建立靜態、動態、空間麵闆、麵闆聯立方程模型，實證檢驗房價與居民儲蓄之間的關繫後髮現，房價的上升會提升居民儲蓄的說法無法得到實證檢驗的支持。
아국대륙적고저축여고방개시량개령인관주적경제현상。일사학자인위고방개도치료거민적예방성저축，종이추고료중국대륙적저축솔，저충관점기위배료전통적재부효응，야여국제경험상패。기우2000년지2012년자금류량표적상관수거연구발현，거민저축적변동지능해석아국총저축상승적35%。진일보이용아국대륙35개성시적면판수거분별건립정태、동태、공간면판、면판련립방정모형，실증검험방개여거민저축지간적관계후발현，방개적상승회제승거민저축적설법무법득도실증검험적지지。
High savings and high housing prices are two economic phenomena for which people show a great deal of concern in China. Some scholars believe that high housing prices lead to household＇s precautionary savings,thereby pushing up the savings rate. This viewpoint is not only contrary to the traditional wealth effect,but also inconsistent with international experience. Based on the data of funds flow table from 2000 to 2011,we find that changes in household savings can only explain35% of increase of total savings. Furthermore,by use of the panel data of 35 cities,we establish the static,dynamic,spatial panel,panel simutaneous equation models repectively,and make an empirical test on the relationship between house prices and household savings and discover that the increase of housing prices can＇t explain the change of household savings rate.
