系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2015年
4期
857~864
,共null页
住房供给 房地产开发企业 供给决策 决策过程 理论模型
住房供給 房地產開髮企業 供給決策 決策過程 理論模型
주방공급 방지산개발기업 공급결책 결책과정 이론모형
housing supply; real estate developer; production decision; decision-making procedure; theory model
政府加大土地出让力度、提高企业融资限制等调控政策能否达到增加住房供给的目标,在很大程度上要受到开发企业供给决策的影响.为了模拟开发企业的供给决策行为,提出了综合考虑房地产开发企业主要决策环节的理论模型.研究表明：在一定的市场环境下,开发企业具有稳定的土地、可售住房、现金和融资额度的储备倾向,为了实现全局利润最大化和持续经营的目标,可能在某一项目或决策环节选择次优策略;随着市场环境发生变化,开发企业会对储备策略进行调整,当房价上涨预期增加时,企业的存货储备倾向显著增强,当房价风险增加时,企业的资金储备倾向显著增强,当融资成本增加或融资约束增强时,开发企业短期内为了回笼资金而加快销售,但由于经营节奏放缓、存货储备倾向提高,企业的长期供给潜力会受到不利影响.
政府加大土地齣讓力度、提高企業融資限製等調控政策能否達到增加住房供給的目標,在很大程度上要受到開髮企業供給決策的影響.為瞭模擬開髮企業的供給決策行為,提齣瞭綜閤攷慮房地產開髮企業主要決策環節的理論模型.研究錶明：在一定的市場環境下,開髮企業具有穩定的土地、可售住房、現金和融資額度的儲備傾嚮,為瞭實現全跼利潤最大化和持續經營的目標,可能在某一項目或決策環節選擇次優策略;隨著市場環境髮生變化,開髮企業會對儲備策略進行調整,噹房價上漲預期增加時,企業的存貨儲備傾嚮顯著增彊,噹房價風險增加時,企業的資金儲備傾嚮顯著增彊,噹融資成本增加或融資約束增彊時,開髮企業短期內為瞭迴籠資金而加快銷售,但由于經營節奏放緩、存貨儲備傾嚮提高,企業的長期供給潛力會受到不利影響.
정부가대토지출양력도、제고기업융자한제등조공정책능부체도증가주방공급적목표,재흔대정도상요수도개발기업공급결책적영향.위료모의개발기업적공급결책행위,제출료종합고필방지산개발기업주요결책배절적이론모형.연구표명：재일정적시장배경하,개발기업구유은정적토지、가수주방、현금화융자액도적저비경향,위료실현전국리윤최대화화지속경영적목표,가능재모일항목혹결책배절선택차우책략;수착시장배경발생변화,개발기업회대저비책략진행조정,당방개상창예기증가시,기업적존화저비경향현저증강,당방개풍험증가시,기업적자금저비경향현저증강,당융자성본증가혹융자약속증강시,개발기업단기내위료회롱자금이가쾌소수,단유우경영절주방완、존화저비경향제고,기업적장기공급잠력회수도불리영향.
Whether the objective of increasing housing supply can be realized by the government＇s policies of increasing land supply or financial constraints on developers is significantly influenced by developers＇ supply decisions. To simulate the decision-making procedures of developers, this paper presents a decision-making theory model that can fully consider the critical decision-making procedures. The results are as follows. Firstly, developers tend to stably reserve land, housing, cash and financial credits in certain market environment. They may choose a sub-optimal strategy for a certain project or decision procedure to pursue the maximization of total corporate benefits and the goal of sustainability. Second, if the market environment changes, developers will adjust their reserve strategies. Developers will significantly increase the inventory reserve preference when the expected growth rate of housing price increases. Developers will significantly increase the capital reserve preference when the expected risk of housing price increases. When the cost of capital increases or the financing limit turns tighter, developers will increase housing sales to keep the corporation funded in short period. However, they will also slow down the speed of housing development and increase the inventory reserve preference, thus their potential of long-term supply will be adversely affected.
