CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用态势概率分析方法，对中国广义货币供应量（M2月同比，M2T）与消费者物价指数（CPI月同比，CPIT）之间的滞后关系进行了实证研究。结果表明，M2T从低谷上升时，CPIT滞后3—4个季度上升的概率最大；M2T从峰顶下降时，CPIT滞后6—8个季度下降的概率最大；同时，M2T持续高位或低位运行也会相应地增加滞后通胀或通缩的概率。另外，过去的十多年中，M2T的合理区间有向低位“漂移”的迹象。本文据此对新常态下的货币政策提出了建议。
본문채용태세개솔분석방법，대중국엄의화폐공응량（M2월동비，M2T）여소비자물개지수（CPI월동비，CPIT）지간적체후관계진행료실증연구。결과표명，M2T종저곡상승시，CPIT체후3—4개계도상승적개솔최대；M2T종봉정하강시，CPIT체후6—8개계도하강적개솔최대；동시，M2T지속고위혹저위운행야회상응지증가체후통창혹통축적개솔。령외，과거적십다년중，M2T적합리구간유향저위“표이”적적상。본문거차대신상태하적화폐정책제출료건의。
Based on the Probabilistic Analysis of Trend, we assess the time-lag relation between the money supply （M2T, year-on-year growth rate of monthly M2） and consumer price index （CPIT, year-on-year monthly CPI） in China. Firstly, the results indicate that the level of CPIT is more likely to rise after 3-4 quarters when M2T rising from its trough, and fall after 6-8 quarters when M2T drops from its peak. Secondly, the sustained high or low level of M2T leads to the high probability of inflation or deflation respectively. Finally, the results imply that a ＂drifting down＂ of ＂optimal interval＂ of M2T over the past decade exists. Based on our research, we propose some policy suggestions for the monetary authority under ＂China＇s New Normal＂.