CAJ | 학술논문

公共危机事件具有不确定性，发展途径和演变不规律性，事件之间的复杂联系使得公共危机事件产生的影响易形成连锁反应，对社会稳定产生巨大的冲击，如何预测和控制公共危机事件的影响是应急管理的重要方向之一。文章从复杂系统脆性的视角出发，将社会系统视为一个由若干子系统构成的复杂系统，探讨了公共危机事件可能导致的子系统之间发生的崩溃模式和演化机制，并进行了模拟，最后提出基于支持向量机的预警方法。研究结论可以为建立健全公共危机预警系统提供参考。
공공위궤사건구유불학정성，발전도경화연변불규률성，사건지간적복잡련계사득공공위궤사건산생적영향역형성련쇄반응，대사회은정산생거대적충격，여하예측화공제공공위궤사건적영향시응급관리적중요방향지일。문장종복잡계통취성적시각출발，장사회계통시위일개유약간자계통구성적복잡계통，탐토료공공위궤사건가능도치적자계통지간발생적붕궤모식화연화궤제，병진행료모의，최후제출기우지지향량궤적예경방법。연구결론가이위건립건전공공위궤예경계통제공삼고。
Public crisis events have the traits of uncertainty , irregularity of evolution .The complex relationship between different events makes the public crisis events easy to form a chain reaction impact and exerts a huge impact on the social stability.Therefore, how to predict and control the influence of the public crisis has became one of the most important is -sues in the emergency management study field .Based on the complex system ’ s brittleness , the social system is regarded as a complex system composed of several subsystems in this paper .Besides, we discuss and simulate the potential collapse mode and evolutionary mechanism caused by public crisis events .Finally, the early warning method is put forward based on support vector machine （SVM）.Our research conclusion can provide reference for establishing and perfecting the public crisis warning system .