CAJ | 학술논문

文章采用1980-2010年全国30个地区的数据,建立空间面板数据模型,考察不同质量城镇化对生育率的作用机制及差异。实证结果发现：城镇化对生育率下降不仅存在直接影响而且存在空间外溢效应;生育观念的扩散效应和生育行为的模仿效应是城镇化发挥作用的基础;不同质量的城镇化对生育率的作用机制存在差异,＂户籍人口-城镇化＂对本地生育率影响较大,而＂流动人口-城镇化＂对周边地区影响很大,说明人口流动是生育观念传播扩散以及生育率地区差距缩小和收敛的重要原因;城镇化进程中生育率持续下降在一定程度上仍是计生政策约束的后果。未来伴随着城镇化加速发展,全国的生育率（尤其是发达地区的生育率）将超越适度低生育率的目标而继续下降,尽快放宽计生政策,研究出台鼓励生育的公共政策,有助于防止生育率过度下降。
문장채용1980-2010년전국30개지구적수거,건립공간면판수거모형,고찰불동질량성진화대생육솔적작용궤제급차이。실증결과발현：성진화대생육솔하강불부존재직접영향이차존재공간외일효응;생육관념적확산효응화생육행위적모방효응시성진화발휘작용적기출;불동질량적성진화대생육솔적작용궤제존재차이,＂호적인구-성진화＂대본지생육솔영향교대,이＂류동인구-성진화＂대주변지구영향흔대,설명인구류동시생육관념전파확산이급생육솔지구차거축소화수렴적중요원인;성진화진정중생육솔지속하강재일정정도상잉시계생정책약속적후과。미래반수착성진화가속발전,전국적생육솔（우기시발체지구적생육솔）장초월괄도저생육솔적목표이계속하강,진쾌방관계생정책,연구출태고려생육적공공정책,유조우방지생육솔과도하강。
This paper adopts 1980-2010 China＇ s panel data, establish the spatial panel data model, analysis the space effect of urbanization on fertility and its difference. The results found that： the influence of ur banization on fertility is not only directly effect but also spatial spillover effects ; The diffusion effect of fertility concept and imitation effect of fertility behavior are foundation of urbanization＇ s effects ; The mechanism is different for different quality of urbanization of fertility, ＂household register population urbanization＂ plays a greatly influence to local fertility, and the ＂floating population urbanization＂ plays a greater influence to other areas ＇ fertility, means that the floating population is the important cause of fertility concept spread and regional fertility gap narrow and convergence; Fertility policy tightening is still contribute tO fer- tility decline in the process of urbanization. Population flow and urbanization acceleration will make the fertility continue to decline beyond moderate low fertility rate goal in the near future. Cancel the one-child policy and formulate public policy of birth encouragement will helpful to avoid fertility decline overmuch.