CAJ | 학술논문

从实证分析的角度，将能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三种因素量化，基于面板分析模型，对中国东部地区11省市2003—2012年间的能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系进行分析，结果表明在能源消费、碳排放与经济增长量均呈现增长的态势下，各变量之间存在长期固定的均衡关系；东部地区能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间均为正相关关系，高能耗、高污染模式依旧存在，低碳经济发展形势严峻；辽宁、北京、天津以及上海这四个省市的经济增长对于能源消耗以及碳排放量的弹性与其他省份相比明显偏高。因此，在能源消费和碳排放量高的双重约束下应当优化能源结构，提高能源效率；加大碳排放控制力度，发展低碳经济，调整产业结构，加快产业结构整合、优化、转型、升级，以此来推动经济的发展。
종실증분석적각도，장능원소비、탄배방여경제증장삼충인소양화，기우면판분석모형，대중국동부지구11성시2003—2012년간적능원소비、탄배방여경제증장관계진행분석，결과표명재능원소비、탄배방여경제증장량균정현증장적태세하，각변량지간존재장기고정적균형관계；동부지구능원소비、탄배방여경제증장지간균위정상관관계，고능모、고오염모식의구존재，저탄경제발전형세엄준；료녕、북경、천진이급상해저사개성시적경제증장대우능원소모이급탄배방량적탄성여기타성빈상비명현편고。인차，재능원소비화탄배방량고적쌍중약속하응당우화능원결구，제고능원효솔；가대탄배방공제력도，발전저탄경제，조정산업결구，가쾌산업결구정합、우화、전형、승급，이차래추동경제적발전。
The development of industrialization and urbanization in China is in the key period, but it faces with conflict about economic and trade growth and resource and environmental constraints.Especially in the eastern region, its development is very fast, but the magnitude of the pollution of the environment is very big.So this arti-cle mainly aims at in 11 provinces in East China, through empirical analysis to study the relationship between ener-gy consumption and carbon emissions and economic growth.Results showed that economy growth of the 11 eastern provinces still relies on energy intensive operating mode, and carbon emissions and economic growth also present a significant positive correlation, and the low carbon economic development model in China is still in the exploratory stage.Finally, under the double constraints of the energy consumption and high carbon emissions, relevant sugges-tions are put forward to promote the economy sustained, stable, green, healthy development.