CAJ | 학술논문

摘要：本文运用1997-2011年中国与主要贸易伙伴的面板数据，基于联立方程模型实证分析政府干预能力差异对双边经济周期协同的影响及其作用路径。结果表明：政府干预能力差异会直接和通过国际传导渠道间接对双边经济周期协同构成影响，两条途径作用的方向均显著为负，但大小明显不同；由于互补品／替代品贸易、垂直型／水平型投资和产业结构之间相互交织的内生关系以及政府干预能力差异对不同传导渠道的影响方向和大小不尽一致，导致间接途径的作用机制较为复杂，其最终效应为负是贸易和产业结构渠道负效应与投资渠道正效应综合作用的结果：政府干预能力差异对不同渠道的影响程度与其通过不同渠道对经济周期协同的影响间并不具有一致性，“越易干预越有效”可能是一种错觉。
적요：본문운용1997-2011년중국여주요무역화반적면판수거，기우련립방정모형실증분석정부간예능력차이대쌍변경제주기협동적영향급기작용로경。결과표명：정부간예능력차이회직접화통과국제전도거도간접대쌍변경제주기협동구성영향，량조도경작용적방향균현저위부，단대소명현불동；유우호보품／체대품무역、수직형／수평형투자화산업결구지간상호교직적내생관계이급정부간예능력차이대불동전도거도적영향방향화대소불진일치，도치간접도경적작용궤제교위복잡，기최종효응위부시무역화산업결구거도부효응여투자거도정효응종합작용적결과：정부간예능력차이대불동거도적영향정도여기통과불동거도대경제주기협동적영향간병불구유일치성，“월역간예월유효”가능시일충착각。
Applying a simultaneous equations model, this paper empirically investi- gates the effect and the influencing pathway of government intervention ability differ- ence on business cycle co-movement by using data of China and its major trade partners from 1997 to 2011. The results indicate that the difference in government intervention abilities affect bilateral business cycle co-movement significantly through direct and indi- rect pathways and both ways of effects are negative, but the degrees of effect differ mark- edly. The intertwined endogenous relations among complementary/alternative trade, ver- tical/horizontal investment and industrial structure as well as the inconsistent effects both in direction and degree of the difference in government intervention ability on different conduction channels make the indirect mechanism quite complex, contributing to a final negative effect resulting from the combined result of the negative effect of trade and in- dustry structure and the positive influence of investment. The effects of government inter- vention ability difference on the conduction channels themselves are not consistent with their effects on the business cycle co-movement through the conduction channels, concluding that ＂the easier the intervention, the more effective＂ might be a misconception.