CAJ | 학술논문

采用ARMA模型、指数平滑、灰色预测和组合预测等方法,在预测人均粮食需求和粮食收益率的基础上,基于联合国人口司中等人口增速假设,预测了2015-2030年我国粮食供需趋势。结果表明：（1）我国粮食需求总量持续增加但增速减慢;小麦和大豆需求增速放慢,玉米需求增速加快,稻米需求增速稳定;（2）饲料粮和工业用粮将取代口粮成为中国第一大粮食用途,玉米将取代稻谷成为中国第一大粮食品种;（3）我国粮食产量预期上升,2015-2020年增产0.5亿吨较为乐观,2020-2030年增产1.1亿吨是个极大的挑战;（4）生物质能源的发展可能造成一半以上的粮食缺口;小麦缺口基本能被稻米盈余所覆盖;通过贸易途径平抑国内饲料和工业用粮缺口是必然选择。
채용ARMA모형、지수평활、회색예측화조합예측등방법,재예측인균양식수구화양식수익솔적기출상,기우연합국인구사중등인구증속가설,예측료2015-2030년아국양식공수추세。결과표명：（1）아국양식수구총량지속증가단증속감만;소맥화대두수구증속방만,옥미수구증속가쾌,도미수구증속은정;（2）사료량화공업용량장취대구량성위중국제일대양식용도,옥미장취대도곡성위중국제일대양식품충;（3）아국양식산량예기상승,2015-2020년증산0.5억둔교위악관,2020-2030년증산1.1억둔시개겁대적도전;（4）생물질능원적발전가능조성일반이상적양식결구;소맥결구기본능피도미영여소복개;통과무역도경평억국내사료화공업용량결구시필연선택。
ARMA model,exponential smoothing model,gray prediction model,and combined forecasting method were adopted to estimate food demand per capita,grain yields. Based on UN population division＇s hypothesis of moderate population growth,China＇s food supply and demand trends for 2015-30 were forecasted. Results show that：（1） The total demand for food continues to grow but the growth is slowing down,so is wheat and soybean demand growth. Besides,corn demand growth accelerates while rice demand growth remains stable.（2） Grain for feed and industrial use become China＇s major food utilization instead of grain ration,and corn will become China＇s first big grain instead of rice.（3） China＇s grain production is expected to rise. The production of 50 million tons more of grain can be expected in2015-2020,but it can be a great challenge to increase 110 million tons of grain in 2020-2030.（4）The development of biomass energy may cause more than half of the food gap. And wheat gap can be covered with rice surplus in general,but the grain gap for domestic corn and industrial use has to be filled with international trade.