CAJ | 학술논문

运用灰色模型GM（1,1）模拟了重庆市2001—2013年碳排放总量的变化规律,并以此为基础预测了2014—2020年的排放量。研究发现：自2006年伴随国家＂十一五＂规划提出节能目标责任制以来,重庆市作为低碳试点城市,碳排放总量增长率显著下降。采用灰色相关分析方法分析了重庆市三大产业的产值结构对于重庆市碳排放总量的相关性。结果表明：第二产业比重增加对于碳排放总量变化产生正效应,而第一和第三产业是负相应的,其中第三产业负相关绝对值最大,所以重庆市加强第三产业发展是控制碳排放总量的重要途径。
운용회색모형GM（1,1）모의료중경시2001—2013년탄배방총량적변화규률,병이차위기출예측료2014—2020년적배방량。연구발현：자2006년반수국가＂십일오＂규화제출절능목표책임제이래,중경시작위저탄시점성시,탄배방총량증장솔현저하강。채용회색상관분석방법분석료중경시삼대산업적산치결구대우중경시탄배방총량적상관성。결과표명：제이산업비중증가대우탄배방총량변화산생정효응,이제일화제삼산업시부상응적,기중제삼산업부상관절대치최대,소이중경시가강제삼산업발전시공제탄배방총량적중요도경。
The gray model GM （ 1,1 ） was used to simulate the variation of Chongqing＇ s total carbon emissions from 2001 to 2013, and to be a basis for predicting the emissions in 2014 and 2020. The study found that since 2006, along with the national ＂Eleventh Five-Year plan＂ proposed energy con- servation target responsibility, as a low-carbon pilot cities, Chongqing＇ s carbon emissions growth rate decreased significantly. At the same time, this paper analyzed the correlation of carbon emissions and industrial structure. The results show that the proportion of secondary industry has a positive effect on carbon emissions, while the first and third industries are negative, especially the tertiary industry, therefore to control the amount of carbon emissions is an important way to strengthen the development of tertiary industry in Chongqing.