CAJ | 학술논문

为了研究北京地区电子出版业产品结构的变化趋势,应用Markov预测方法和多元回归分析方法对北京地区电子出版业的产品结构进行了研究,并给出了其Markov链的状态转移概率矩阵的估算模型。通过对模拟结果的误差考查,表明此方法具有较高的预测精度,并以此为基础预测了2013-2017年北京地区电子出版业产品结构的变化趋势。Markov预测模型在北京电子出版业产品结构变化趋势预测中的应用丰富了Markov预测方法的应用领域。
위료연구북경지구전자출판업산품결구적변화추세,응용Markov예측방법화다원회귀분석방법대북경지구전자출판업적산품결구진행료연구,병급출료기Markov련적상태전이개솔구진적고산모형。통과대모의결과적오차고사,표명차방법구유교고적예측정도,병이차위기출예측료2013-2017년북경지구전자출판업산품결구적변화추세。Markov예측모형재북경전자출판업산품결구변화추세예측중적응용봉부료Markov예측방법적응용영역。
In order to study the structural change of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing, the prediction techniques of Markov and multiple regression analysis are applied to conduct research on the prediction problem of the product structure of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing, and the estimation model of Markov matrix of state transition probability is provided as well. The conclusion shows that the prediction accuracy of the prediction technique is quite high as the error of simulated result has been tested. The prediction technique is applied to forecast the product structure of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing from 2013 to 2017. The application of Markov prediction model in forecasting the product structure of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing has greatly expanded the fields where the prediction technique of Markov can be put into practice, and the data about the product structure of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing can hopefully offer reference for the development of industrial planning of publishing industry in Beijing.