CAJ | 학술논문

家庭养老是现阶段我国农村养老保障的主体。在人口老龄化背景下，家庭养老功能逐渐弱化，农村养老保障向社会养老转变成为必然选择。立足于家庭养老发展变动趋势和农村社会养老保险动态调整机制，对中国农村养老保障方式转变的过程作了定量分析。城镇化及农村老年人口比重快速上升，是决定家庭子女养老向社会养老转变的重要推动因素，农村养老保障方式转变呈现为一个转折点、三个阶段。依据家庭子女养老和社会养老替代率水平变动趋势可确定：2012—2021年为家庭子女养老为主并呈逐渐弱化趋势；2022年左右为农村养老保障方式转折点，家庭子女养老与社会养老并重；2023—2050年社会养老为主并呈逐渐上升趋势。依据农村养老保障方式转变路径提出了相关对策建议。
가정양로시현계단아국농촌양로보장적주체。재인구노령화배경하，가정양로공능축점약화，농촌양로보장향사회양로전변성위필연선택。립족우가정양로발전변동추세화농촌사회양로보험동태조정궤제，대중국농촌양로보장방식전변적과정작료정량분석。성진화급농촌노년인구비중쾌속상승，시결정가정자녀양로향사회양로전변적중요추동인소，농촌양로보장방식전변정현위일개전절점、삼개계단。의거가정자녀양로화사회양로체대솔수평변동추세가학정：2012—2021년위가정자녀양로위주병정축점약화추세；2022년좌우위농촌양로보장방식전절점，가정자녀양로여사회양로병중；2023—2050년사회양로위주병정축점상승추세。의거농촌양로보장방식전변로경제출료상관대책건의。
Traditional family supporting model is the main form in the rural old - age security system at the present stage. In the context of an aging population, the family supporting function gradually weakening, the rural social old -age pensions shift to become the inevitable choice. Based on the changing trend of development of the family supporting and dynamic adjustment of rural social pensions mechanism, the article makes the quantitative analysis on the changing path of the mode of China＇s rural old - age security and finds that urbanization and rapid in- crease in the proportion of elderly population in rural areas are the important driving factors of changing family supporting to social pensions, meanwhile finds a turning point and three pha- ses：according to substitution rate ,family support is priority and gradually weakening phase be- tween 2012 and 2021 ;2022 is the turning point of changing rural old -age security mode ,familysupporting and social pensions pay same role ity and will be gradually rising between 2023 termeasures and suggestions on the changing in rural old - age security ; social pensions is prior- and 2050. We put forward the corresponding coun- path of the rural old -age security.