CAJ | 학술논문

通过对我国大豆贸易现状及供求平衡的分析发现,国内供求的巨大缺口以及较低的关税水平是我国大豆进口量激增的主要原因.通过敏感度测算发现,大豆进口量对价格的敏感度较高,且受到国内库存和全球大豆种植状况的影响,我国大豆进口面临着较大的价格风险.根据大豆贸易的定价公式,分析认为CBOT期货合约价格、离岸升贴水以及海运运费是造成大豆进口价格波动的主要因素.鉴于此,提出应对农产品价格风险的主要策略在于提高整体议价能力、充分参与国内外期货市场、积极推进国内相关金融产品创新.
통과대아국대두무역현상급공구평형적분석발현,국내공구적거대결구이급교저적관세수평시아국대두진구량격증적주요원인.통과민감도측산발현,대두진구량대개격적민감도교고,차수도국내고존화전구대두충식상황적영향,아국대두진구면림착교대적개격풍험.근거대두무역적정개공식,분석인위CBOT기화합약개격、리안승첩수이급해운운비시조성대두진구개격파동적주요인소.감우차,제출응대농산품개격풍험적주요책략재우제고정체의개능력、충분삼여국내외기화시장、적겁추진국내상관금융산품창신.
From analyzing the current situation of trade and the balance of supply and demand, the huge gap in domestic supply and demand and lower tariff level are the main reason of the drastic increment in the soybean imports. From the sensitiv- ity measurement, the sensitivity between the import amount and price is higher and affected by the domestic storage and global plantation, so China＇s soybean irfiports is facing a larger price risk. According to the pricing formula, this paper proposes that the CBOT futures contract price, soybean＇s contango rate, ocean freight are the main reason to cause price fluctuation. Thus, this paper puts forward the main strategy to cope with the agricultural prick risk： increasing the whole price bargain capacity, partici- paring the foreign and domestic futures market, and actively improving the domestic relevant financial product innovation.