CAJ | 학술논문

为了分析供应链运作过程中存在风险的性质，采用贝叶斯网的方式，构建了供应链风险因素、风险事件之间的系统模型，并在量子概率的基础上，分析各种风险发生的规律，并分析了供应链风险事件之间存在的共同发生的可能性。结论认为：供应链风险是一个具有多源、多维、交叉等多种属性的复杂系统，其中，道德风险与牛鞭效应最容易发生，双重边际效应、资金链断裂以及牛鞭效应的影响最大；若干种风险之间按照一个较高的概率发生着共振现象。
위료분석공응련운작과정중존재풍험적성질，채용패협사망적방식，구건료공응련풍험인소、풍험사건지간적계통모형，병재양자개솔적기출상，분석각충풍험발생적규률，병분석료공응련풍험사건지간존재적공동발생적가능성。결론인위：공응련풍험시일개구유다원、다유、교차등다충속성적복잡계통，기중，도덕풍험여우편효응최용역발생，쌍중변제효응、자금련단렬이급우편효응적영향최대；약간충풍험지간안조일개교고적개솔발생착공진현상。
To analyze the properties of the supply chain risk in its operation process, a model who named Bayesian Network is introduced to construct the system model of supply chain risk factors, risk event, based on quantum probability, the law of supply chain risk event is gotten and the proba- bility of several supply chain risk events ＂co - occurring＂ is analyzed. It is conclude that supply chain risk is a complex system with multi - sources, multi -dimensions and overlapping properties, where, moral hazards and bull -whip are most susceptible, and double marginal effect, funds chain interruption and bull - whip are most effect supply chain operating, furthermore, there are several risk events are co - occurring with a relative high probability.