经济评论
經濟評論
경제평론
Economic Review
2015年
3期
31~43
,共null页
高储蓄率 人力财富比例 金融加速器
高儲蓄率 人力財富比例 金融加速器
고저축솔 인력재부비례 금융가속기
High Saving Rate, Human Wealth Ratio, Financial Accelerator
本文分析了中国高储蓄率的动态表现,指出解释储蓄率不断上升的事实是理解中国＂高储蓄率之谜＂的关键。为了理解这个特征事实,我们建立一个扩展的缓冲存货模型,分析了存在信贷约束时,随机冲击导致人力财富比例变动从而引起储蓄率波动的动态影响机制,指出该机制中存在着＂金融加速器＂效应,表现为居民在面临随机冲击时通过增加储蓄会获得流动性溢价,而且流动性溢价与随机冲击的程度成正比,因此该效应会放大储蓄率的波动。运用该模型对中国储蓄率动态进行的数值模拟发现,该模型不仅能够解释中国储蓄率不断上升的长期趋势,也能够较好地模拟其短期的周期性波动。
本文分析瞭中國高儲蓄率的動態錶現,指齣解釋儲蓄率不斷上升的事實是理解中國＂高儲蓄率之謎＂的關鍵。為瞭理解這箇特徵事實,我們建立一箇擴展的緩遲存貨模型,分析瞭存在信貸約束時,隨機遲擊導緻人力財富比例變動從而引起儲蓄率波動的動態影響機製,指齣該機製中存在著＂金融加速器＂效應,錶現為居民在麵臨隨機遲擊時通過增加儲蓄會穫得流動性溢價,而且流動性溢價與隨機遲擊的程度成正比,因此該效應會放大儲蓄率的波動。運用該模型對中國儲蓄率動態進行的數值模擬髮現,該模型不僅能夠解釋中國儲蓄率不斷上升的長期趨勢,也能夠較好地模擬其短期的週期性波動。
본문분석료중국고저축솔적동태표현,지출해석저축솔불단상승적사실시리해중국＂고저축솔지미＂적관건。위료리해저개특정사실,아문건립일개확전적완충존화모형,분석료존재신대약속시,수궤충격도치인력재부비례변동종이인기저축솔파동적동태영향궤제,지출해궤제중존재착＂금융가속기＂효응,표현위거민재면림수궤충격시통과증가저축회획득류동성일개,이차류동성일개여수궤충격적정도성정비,인차해효응회방대저축솔적파동。운용해모형대중국저축솔동태진행적수치모의발현,해모형불부능구해석중국저축솔불단상승적장기추세,야능구교호지모의기단기적주기성파동。
In this paper,we firstly analyze the dynamics of China＇s high saving rate and declare that the increasing trend is the main stylized fact,which is also the key point to understand China＇s high saving rate puzzle. We then construct and expand a ＂Buffer- Stock＂model to analyze the mechanism of China＇s saving rate when there is borrowing constraint. We declare that stochastic shocks change the human wealth ratio and then affect China＇s saving rate dynamics,in which mechanism there is a financial accelerator that agents will increase savings when facing stochastic shocks,and by which they can obtain liquidity premium and the premium is positively related to the degree of stochastic shocks,therefore,this mechanism will accelerate the fluctuation of saving rate. Finally,we use this model to simulate China＇s saving rate fluctuations during 1978- 2013,and find that this model can simulate both the trend and the cyclical components of China＇s saving rate.
