CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用2004-2011年全国35个大中城市的房价数据,采用Maddala（1983）提出的处理效应模型,对地铁开通对城市平均房价的影响进行了细致的政策评估,同时对始于2004年的这股＂地铁热＂,从房价宏观调控角度展开了深刻反思。实证研究发现：地铁开通对城市商品房价上涨的贡献率约为5.06%,其中更主要是对二三线城市和商业楼盘产生影响。按照2020年我国轨道交通规模6 000公里的规划,将会因为仅仅开通地铁导致房价上涨10.23%,情景模拟结果表明,这会使得开通地铁的33个大中城市居民家庭在2020年需要多工作1.37年才能买得起房,住房负担提高了近四分之一。本文从稳定房价的角度出发,主张二三线城市地铁开通应该提高门槛,从严控制。
본문이용2004-2011년전국35개대중성시적방개수거,채용Maddala（1983）제출적처리효응모형,대지철개통대성시평균방개적영향진행료세치적정책평고,동시대시우2004년적저고＂지철열＂,종방개굉관조공각도전개료심각반사。실증연구발현：지철개통대성시상품방개상창적공헌솔약위5.06%,기중경주요시대이삼선성시화상업루반산생영향。안조2020년아국궤도교통규모6 000공리적규화,장회인위부부개통지철도치방개상창10.23%,정경모의결과표명,저회사득개통지철적33개대중성시거민가정재2020년수요다공작1.37년재능매득기방,주방부담제고료근사분지일。본문종은정방개적각도출발,주장이삼선성시지철개통응해제고문함,종엄공제。
This paper estimates the impact of metro opening on housing price using housing price data of 35 large and medium- sized cities from 2004- 2011,and employs treatment effect model proposed by Maddala. Meanwhile,this paper rethinks the ＂Metro- Hot＂phenomena started in2000 from the perspective of macroeconomic regulation and control on housing price. Empirical results show：（1） The metro opening＇s contribution to the price of commercial housing rising is about 5. 06%. The counterfactual results show that the rising levels of housing prices will be higher than those cities where already opened metros,which is caused by ＂Metro- Hot＂to a great extent.（2） According to the Plan of Rail Transit System 6000 km in 2020,the housing price will rise 10. 23% only because of metro opening. Scenario simulation results show that rising housing price will make residents in 33 metro cities to work extra 1. 37 years in order to afford housing in2020. From the perspective of stabilizing housing price,this paper advocates to strictly control the opening of metro in middle and small cities and develop it gradually.