CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过脉冲响应函数计算人民币汇率变化对进口商品价格变化的传递率和人民币汇率变化对出口商品价格变化的传递率。结果表明,人民币汇率变化对进口商品价格变化的不完全传递程度要高于人民汇率变化对出口商品价格变化的不完全传递程度。本文随后构建包含汇率变化对进口商品价格不完全传递特征的动态随机均衡模型,分析了在不同汇率传递率下,美国货币政策冲击对中国产出的影响。研究表明,人民币汇率不完全传递程度越高,美国货币政策冲击对中国通货膨胀率波动、利率波动和产出波动的影响越小。鉴于此,中国需要进一步深化汇率市场改革,逐步扩大人民币汇率的波动区间;加快人民币国际化进程,提高人民币在国际市场上的地位;同时,不断提高国内企业产品在世界市场上的核心竞争力。
본문통과맥충향응함수계산인민폐회솔변화대진구상품개격변화적전체솔화인민폐회솔변화대출구상품개격변화적전체솔。결과표명,인민폐회솔변화대진구상품개격변화적불완전전체정도요고우인민회솔변화대출구상품개격변화적불완전전체정도。본문수후구건포함회솔변화대진구상품개격불완전전체특정적동태수궤균형모형,분석료재불동회솔전체솔하,미국화폐정책충격대중국산출적영향。연구표명,인민폐회솔불완전전체정도월고,미국화폐정책충격대중국통화팽창솔파동、리솔파동화산출파동적영향월소。감우차,중국수요진일보심화회솔시장개혁,축보확대인민폐회솔적파동구간;가쾌인민폐국제화진정,제고인민폐재국제시장상적지위;동시,불단제고국내기업산품재세계시장상적핵심경쟁력。
In this paper, we employ the impulse response function to calculate the incomplete transfer rate of RMB exchange rate change on import price change and export price change. The results show that the incomplete transfer rate of RMB exchange rate change on import price change is far stronger than the incomplete transfer rate of RMB exchange rate change on export price change. And then, we develop and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（DSGE） model for the Chinese economy. The model includes some features such as sticky prices and wages, incomplete exchange pass-through. The greater the degree of RMB exchange rate incomplete pass-through is, the smaller the impact of foreign monetary policy shocks on fluctuation of inflation rate, interest rate and output is. In view of this, we should further deepen the reform of the foreign exchange market and gradually expand the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range. Accelerating the process of RMB internationalization improves the status of RMB in the international market. At the same time, we should constantly improve the core competitiveness of the domestic enterprise products in the world market.