国际金融研究
國際金融研究
국제금융연구
Studies of International Finance
2015年
5期
46~55
,共null页
人口老龄化 政府债务风险 银行危机 法律与秩序指数
人口老齡化 政府債務風險 銀行危機 法律與秩序指數
인구노령화 정부채무풍험 은행위궤 법률여질서지수
Aging Population;Government Debt Risk;Banking Crisis;Law and Order Index
近年来,许多国家政府债务快速增加,债务风险明显上升,甚至引发债务危机。对发达国家来说,人口老龄化是导致政府债务风险攀升的最重要因素之一。本文选取20个发达国家作为样本,通过动态面板模型分析人口老龄化对政府债务风险的影响。研究结果发现,人口老龄化程度越高,政府债务风险越高;银行危机明显提高政府债务风险;经济增长速度越快,政府债务风险越低。为此,建议我国政府及早采取措施防止人口老龄化带来政府债务风险上升。
近年來,許多國傢政府債務快速增加,債務風險明顯上升,甚至引髮債務危機。對髮達國傢來說,人口老齡化是導緻政府債務風險攀升的最重要因素之一。本文選取20箇髮達國傢作為樣本,通過動態麵闆模型分析人口老齡化對政府債務風險的影響。研究結果髮現,人口老齡化程度越高,政府債務風險越高;銀行危機明顯提高政府債務風險;經濟增長速度越快,政府債務風險越低。為此,建議我國政府及早採取措施防止人口老齡化帶來政府債務風險上升。
근년래,허다국가정부채무쾌속증가,채무풍험명현상승,심지인발채무위궤。대발체국가래설,인구노령화시도치정부채무풍험반승적최중요인소지일。본문선취20개발체국가작위양본,통과동태면판모형분석인구노령화대정부채무풍험적영향。연구결과발현,인구노령화정도월고,정부채무풍험월고;은행위궤명현제고정부채무풍험;경제증장속도월쾌,정부채무풍험월저。위차,건의아국정부급조채취조시방지인구노령화대래정부채무풍험상승。
In recent years, many countries are witnessing rapid increase in government debt, leading to significant increase in the debt risk and even a debt crisis. For developed countries, the aging population is one of the most important factors leading to the risk of rising government debt. The paper selected a sample of 20 countries to analyze the impact of aging population on government debt risks through dynamic panel models. The results found that the higher the degree of aging population, the higher the risk of government debt; banking crises significantly increased the risk of government debt; the higher the growth rate, the lower the risk of government debt. Therefore, the government is suggested to take early measures to address the impact of aging population and prevent the risk of government debt.
