CAJ | 학술논문

本文使用1978—2013年的中国宏观经济数据,从总需求、产业、生产力、就业与工资、价格水平、货币与利息6个方面考察了改革开放以来我国经济波动的规律。不同于已有的研究结果,本文发现中国经济波动具有明显的＂转型经济＂特征,主要体现在以下两个方面。一是经济周期大致可分为两个阶段：1978—1990年和1991—2013年。前一阶段,主要是供给面因素造成经济波动,且波动率较大。后一阶段,经济波动表现为需求驱动型,波动幅度明显减弱。二是第一产业就业人数与第二、三产业就业人数之和的比值具有明显的反周期特征。这反映了在我国的工业化进程中,农村剩余劳动力在空间上频繁迁移的特点,即宏观经济景气时,农村剩余劳动力迁移到城市;反之,则迁移回农村。
본문사용1978—2013년적중국굉관경제수거,종총수구、산업、생산력、취업여공자、개격수평、화폐여이식6개방면고찰료개혁개방이래아국경제파동적규률。불동우이유적연구결과,본문발현중국경제파동구유명현적＂전형경제＂특정,주요체현재이하량개방면。일시경제주기대치가분위량개계단：1978—1990년화1991—2013년。전일계단,주요시공급면인소조성경제파동,차파동솔교대。후일계단,경제파동표현위수구구동형,파동폭도명현감약。이시제일산업취업인수여제이、삼산업취업인수지화적비치구유명현적반주기특정。저반영료재아국적공업화진정중,농촌잉여노동력재공간상빈번천이적특점,즉굉관경제경기시,농촌잉여노동력천이도성시;반지,칙천이회농촌。
The paper examines the business cycle during the reform and opening up period in China from 6aspects of total demand, industry, productivity, employment and wage, price level, currency and interest, by using the macroeconomic data of China from 1978 to 2013. Compared to the existing results, we find that there are two main features of China＇ s business cycle. Firstly, the transitional period falls into two stages, the first stage is from 1978 to 1990, in which the economic fluctuations are attributable to supply shock, while in the latter stage beginning from 1991 to present, the volatility of the output becomes smaller and mainly be driven by the demand shock. Secondly, the ratio of the employee in the first industry to that in the second and tertiary industry is strongly counter-cyclical, which shows the phenomenon that the rural surplus labor force flow into the city when the economy is prosperous, otherwise return back to the countryside.