统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2015年
4期
14~20
,共null页
M2 现金等价货币总量 迪维西亚货币总量 货币政策中介目标
M2 現金等價貨幣總量 迪維西亞貨幣總量 貨幣政策中介目標
M2 현금등개화폐총량 적유서아화폐총량 화폐정책중개목표
M2 ; Currency Equivalent Aggregates ; Divisia Monetary Aggregates ; the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy
M2是传统的货币政策中介目标,然而,随着经济和金融环境的变化,它的有效性备受质疑。在没有更好的替代指标出现以前,探讨修正的M2是学术界的热点。迪维西亚法和现金等价法都是基于流动性总量的测度来修正简单加总法测度下的M2。本文通过更为简洁的模型推导,首次在构建原理上论证,在测度M2的流动性总量时,现金等价法的精确性明显优于迪维西亚法。本文还基于货币需求函数的稳定性和选择货币政策中介目标的可控性、相关性原则,对简单加总法、迪维西亚法和现金等价法测度下的M2的合理性进行实证比较,结果表明,现金等价法测度下的M2在货币需求函数的稳定性以及作为货币政策中介目标的可控性、相关性上都明显优于简单加总法和迪维西亚法测度下的M2。因此,本文认为,应该用现金等价法来修正传统M2,使其能够准确反映流动性总量的变化,提升其作为货币政策中介目标的效力。
M2是傳統的貨幣政策中介目標,然而,隨著經濟和金融環境的變化,它的有效性備受質疑。在沒有更好的替代指標齣現以前,探討脩正的M2是學術界的熱點。迪維西亞法和現金等價法都是基于流動性總量的測度來脩正簡單加總法測度下的M2。本文通過更為簡潔的模型推導,首次在構建原理上論證,在測度M2的流動性總量時,現金等價法的精確性明顯優于迪維西亞法。本文還基于貨幣需求函數的穩定性和選擇貨幣政策中介目標的可控性、相關性原則,對簡單加總法、迪維西亞法和現金等價法測度下的M2的閤理性進行實證比較,結果錶明,現金等價法測度下的M2在貨幣需求函數的穩定性以及作為貨幣政策中介目標的可控性、相關性上都明顯優于簡單加總法和迪維西亞法測度下的M2。因此,本文認為,應該用現金等價法來脩正傳統M2,使其能夠準確反映流動性總量的變化,提升其作為貨幣政策中介目標的效力。
M2시전통적화폐정책중개목표,연이,수착경제화금융배경적변화,타적유효성비수질의。재몰유경호적체대지표출현이전,탐토수정적M2시학술계적열점。적유서아법화현금등개법도시기우류동성총량적측도래수정간단가총법측도하적M2。본문통과경위간길적모형추도,수차재구건원리상론증,재측도M2적류동성총량시,현금등개법적정학성명현우우적유서아법。본문환기우화폐수구함수적은정성화선택화폐정책중개목표적가공성、상관성원칙,대간단가총법、적유서아법화현금등개법측도하적M2적합이성진행실증비교,결과표명,현금등개법측도하적M2재화폐수구함수적은정성이급작위화폐정책중개목표적가공성、상관성상도명현우우간단가총법화적유서아법측도하적M2。인차,본문인위,응해용현금등개법래수정전통M2,사기능구준학반영류동성총량적변화,제승기작위화폐정책중개목표적효력。
M2 is the traditional intermediate target of monetary policy. However, its effectiveness is seriously doubted by the academic monetary authorities circle in the world with the change of economic and financial environment. The research on correction of M2 is a hot topic in the academic world until there is a better alternative target. Divisia Method and Currency Equivalent Method both correct M2 by Simple Sum Method based on measurement of the overall liquidity. The study proves for the first time on the model building that the accuracy of measuring the liquidity aggregates of Me by Currency Equivalent Method is obviously better than Divisia Method. We also do empirical test on monetary aggregates by the three methods under the stability of money demand function and the two principals of controllability and relevancy as the intermediate target of monetary policy. The result suggests that a monetary aggregate by Currency Equivalent Method is better than that of the other two methods under the stability of money demand function, the controllability and the relevancy. So, this study suggests that the correction of M2 by Currency Equivalent Method is more suitable to ＇be the intermediate target of monetary policy of monetary authority in China.
