CAJ | 학술논문

基于中国59个大中城市2000-2011年的数据,利用面板VAR模型对人口迁移、地方公共支出和房价三者之间的动态关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,地方公共支出和房价之间存在双向关系,人口迁移和地方公共支出以及房价之间的关系是非对称的;进一步的脉冲响应分析发现,人口迁移冲击对地方公共支出和房价的正向作用较小,地方公共支出冲击对人口迁移和房价具有正向影响,房价冲击对地方公共支出和人口迁移具有负向影响;方差分解结果显示人口迁移具有自我积累的发展机制,房价变动对自身、人口迁移和地方公共支出的波动均产生影响,相比房价对地方公共支出波动的影响,地方公共支出对房价波动的影响更大。
기우중국59개대중성시2000-2011년적수거,이용면판VAR모형대인구천이、지방공공지출화방개삼자지간적동태관계진행료실증분석。연구결과표명,지방공공지출화방개지간존재쌍향관계,인구천이화지방공공지출이급방개지간적관계시비대칭적;진일보적맥충향응분석발현,인구천이충격대지방공공지출화방개적정향작용교소,지방공공지출충격대인구천이화방개구유정향영향,방개충격대지방공공지출화인구천이구유부향영향;방차분해결과현시인구천이구유자아적루적발전궤제,방개변동대자신、인구천이화지방공공지출적파동균산생영향,상비방개대지방공공지출파동적영향,지방공공지출대방개파동적영향경대。
Based on the data of 59 cities in China from 2000 to 2011 , this essay employs the panel VAR model to ana- lyze empirically the dynamic relation among population migra- tion, local public expenditure and housing price. The results show that： there is a two - way relationship between local public expenditure and housing price, while there is an asymmetrical relationship between population migration and local public ex- penditure as well as population migration and housing price; fur- ther impulse response analysis has found that population migra- tion impact has small effect on local public expenditure and housing price, local public expenditure impact has positive effect on population migration and housing price, housing price impact has negative effect on local public expenditure and population migration; the variance decomposition has found that the devel- opment of population migration has self accumulation mecha- nism, the change of housing price affects the fluctuation of it- self, population migration and local public expenditure, the effect of local public expenditure on the fluctuation of housing price is larger than that of housing price on the fluctuation of lo- cal public expenditure.