CAJ | 학술논문

能源反弹效应的大小影响了能否通过提高能源效率降低能源消费，在新古典经济增长理论的框架下，选择哈罗德中性技术进步来刻画中国的经济发展历史和现实，构建能源反弹效应测算模型，并测算了我国1980—2012年的能源反弹效应，其平均值为151％，有着明显的“回火”效应。通过综合模型的理论分析和实证研究结论，提出了在提高能源效率的同时进行能源价格机制改革，能源税收和补贴机制改革，转变能源消费结构，构建能源全球互联网，建立碳排放交易市场，加强节能环保宣传等政策建议。
능원반탄효응적대소영향료능부통과제고능원효솔강저능원소비，재신고전경제증장이론적광가하，선택합라덕중성기술진보래각화중국적경제발전역사화현실，구건능원반탄효응측산모형，병측산료아국1980—2012년적능원반탄효응，기평균치위151％，유착명현적“회화”효응。통과종합모형적이론분석화실증연구결론，제출료재제고능원효솔적동시진행능원개격궤제개혁，능원세수화보첩궤제개혁，전변능원소비결구，구건능원전구호련망，건립탄배방교역시장，가강절능배보선전등정책건의。
China＇s huge energy consumption has not only promoted the economic growth, but also has brought the problems of cities＇ haze and environmental pollution and carbon emissions. The energy conservation and emissions reduction are gradually payed attention to by the sectors of our society. Whether it can reduce energy consumption by improving energy efficiency is equivalent to measure the degree of China＇s energy rebound effect. Based on the form of new classical econom- ic theory, the Harod-neutral technical progress is chosen to describe the development of Chinese economy and to construct a calculating modal of energy rebound effect, and to have measured the energy rebound effect from 1980 to 2009, the aver- age value is 152%, which has a clear ＂temper＂ effect. Finally, after the theoretical analysis of comprehensive modal and the empirical study, this paper suggested some proposals： at the same time of improving energy effect to have a reform of the energy price, to have a reform of energy tax and subsidized system, to change the structure of energy consumption, to construct a global interact of energy, to build a market of carbon emissions and to publicize the energy conservation and environment protection.