CAJ | 학술논문

鉴于目前学术界对城镇化水平、农业现代化与农民人均收入之间的交互响应情况及其响应路径还没定论,以广东省为例,选取该省1982—2012年的年度时间序列,在构建VAR模型的基础上,采用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析等方法,对三者的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,三者之间存在交互响应作用,其中农业现代化是农民人均收入增长的格兰杰原因,对提高农民人均收入作用非常明显,由此得到的政策启示是：必须大力推进农业现代化的发展,从而实现农民人均收入的增长。
감우목전학술계대성진화수평、농업현대화여농민인균수입지간적교호향응정황급기향응로경환몰정론,이광동성위례,선취해성1982—2012년적년도시간서렬,재구건VAR모형적기출상,채용격란걸인과검험、맥충향응분석화방차분해분석등방법,대삼자적관계진행실증연구。결과표명,삼자지간존재교호향응작용,기중농업현대화시농민인균수입증장적격란걸원인,대제고농민인균수입작용비상명현,유차득도적정책계시시：필수대력추진농업현대화적발전,종이실현농민인균수입적증장。
Given that the interaction and the interactive path between the level of urbanization, agriculture modernization and average income of peasants are not settled yet in the current academic circle, taking Guangdong province as an example, we select the province＇s 1982-2012 annual time series, adopt the granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, and carry out the empirical research on the relationship between those three elements on the basis of VAN model. The results show that there is an interactive response between the three： agricultural modernization is the granger reason for farmers＇ income growth, and plays an obvious role in improving the average income of peasants. The policy implication is that we must promote the development of agricultural modernization vigorously so as to realize the growth of per capita income of farmers.