CAJ | 학술논문

本文综合运用Tapio脱钩模型、面板协整检验、滞后期工具变量法和碳排放峰值预测，使用1995-2012年的18年长面板数据，研究中部六省经济增长方式对区域碳排放的影响。研究思路是先用Tapio脱钩模型考察中部各省经济增长与碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和碳强度之间的关系，找到中部各省的个体差异和共性，接着检验经济增长与碳排放是否存在长期均衡，在确定两者存在长期均衡的基础上进一步运用省际面板数据和滞后期工具变量具体考察中部六省经济增长中产业结构、能源结构、城镇化水平、对外贸易和技术进步与碳排放总量和碳强度的关系，归纳经济增长方式对区域碳排放的影响，最后根据回归方程和中部六省的基础数据预测碳排放峰值的到来时间。得出中部六省经济增长对于化石能源的依赖程度经历了由弱到强再到弱的过程，经济增长方式经历了一个由集约到粗放再回到相对集约的过程；经济增长与碳排放之间存在协整关系，中部六省人均GDP增长对人均碳排放增长的贡献弹性还很大，即人均GDP每升高1%，碳排放总量会上升1.2467%；中部六省存在碳排放和碳强度环境库兹涅茨曲线，火力发电对中部六省的碳排放和碳强度产生正的影响，前后两年间火力发电比例每提高1%，中部六省内碳排放量和碳强度将分别提高0.5051%和0.3703%，第二、第三产业的发展和技术进步有利于中部六省的碳减排工作，前后两年间的第二产业占GDP 比重、第三产业占GDP比重和研发强度代表的技术进步每提高1%，中部六省碳排放量将会分别降低2.2861%、3.8453%和48.1676%，碳强度将会分别下降1.9194%、3.1630%、48.9964%，城镇化和地区开放程度对中部六省的碳排放影响不显著，中部六省经济增长方式对区域碳排放量和碳强度的影响是一致的；目前各省均已越过碳强度峰值，但还远未越过碳排放峰值。在经济“新常态”下，通过强化中部六省碳减排的协同合作和跨区域治理，打造中部碳交易市场和碳金融中心，调整产业结构、促进技术进步，积极发展低碳产业，中部六省很有可能提前在2030年前达到碳排放峰值。本文綜閤運用Tapio脫鉤模型、麵闆協整檢驗、滯後期工具變量法和碳排放峰值預測，使用1995-2012年的18年長麵闆數據，研究中部六省經濟增長方式對區域碳排放的影響。研究思路是先用Tapio脫鉤模型攷察中部各省經濟增長與碳排放總量、人均碳排放量和碳彊度之間的關繫，找到中部各省的箇體差異和共性，接著檢驗經濟增長與碳排放是否存在長期均衡，在確定兩者存在長期均衡的基礎上進一步運用省際麵闆數據和滯後期工具變量具體攷察中部六省經濟增長中產業結構、能源結構、城鎮化水平、對外貿易和技術進步與碳排放總量和碳彊度的關繫，歸納經濟增長方式對區域碳排放的影響，最後根據迴歸方程和中部六省的基礎數據預測碳排放峰值的到來時間。得齣中部六省經濟增長對于化石能源的依賴程度經歷瞭由弱到彊再到弱的過程，經濟增長方式經歷瞭一箇由集約到粗放再迴到相對集約的過程；經濟增長與碳排放之間存在協整關繫，中部六省人均GDP增長對人均碳排放增長的貢獻彈性還很大，即人均GDP每升高1%，碳排放總量會上升1.2467%；中部六省存在碳排放和碳彊度環境庫玆涅茨麯線，火力髮電對中部六省的碳排放和碳彊度產生正的影響，前後兩年間火力髮電比例每提高1%，中部六省內碳排放量和碳彊度將分彆提高0.5051%和0.3703%，第二、第三產業的髮展和技術進步有利于中部六省的碳減排工作，前後兩年間的第二產業佔GDP 比重、第三產業佔GDP比重和研髮彊度代錶的技術進步每提高1%，中部六省碳排放量將會分彆降低2.2861%、3.8453%和48.1676%，碳彊度將會分彆下降1.9194%、3.1630%、48.9964%，城鎮化和地區開放程度對中部六省的碳排放影響不顯著，中部六省經濟增長方式對區域碳排放量和碳彊度的影響是一緻的；目前各省均已越過碳彊度峰值，但還遠未越過碳排放峰值。在經濟“新常態”下，通過彊化中部六省碳減排的協同閤作和跨區域治理，打造中部碳交易市場和碳金融中心，調整產業結構、促進技術進步，積極髮展低碳產業，中部六省很有可能提前在2030年前達到碳排放峰值。
본문종합운용Tapio탈구모형、면판협정검험、체후기공구변량법화탄배방봉치예측，사용1995-2012년적18년장면판수거，연구중부륙성경제증장방식대구역탄배방적영향。연구사로시선용Tapio탈구모형고찰중부각성경제증장여탄배방총량、인균탄배방량화탄강도지간적관계，조도중부각성적개체차이화공성，접착검험경제증장여탄배방시부존재장기균형，재학정량자존재장기균형적기출상진일보운용성제면판수거화체후기공구변량구체고찰중부륙성경제증장중산업결구、능원결구、성진화수평、대외무역화기술진보여탄배방총량화탄강도적관계，귀납경제증장방식대구역탄배방적영향，최후근거회귀방정화중부륙성적기출수거예측탄배방봉치적도래시간。득출중부륙성경제증장대우화석능원적의뢰정도경력료유약도강재도약적과정，경제증장방식경력료일개유집약도조방재회도상대집약적과정；경제증장여탄배방지간존재협정관계，중부륙성인균GDP증장대인균탄배방증장적공헌탄성환흔대，즉인균GDP매승고1%，탄배방총량회상승1.2467%；중부륙성존재탄배방화탄강도배경고자열자곡선，화력발전대중부륙성적탄배방화탄강도산생정적영향，전후량년간화력발전비례매제고1%，중부륙성내탄배방량화탄강도장분별제고0.5051%화0.3703%，제이、제삼산업적발전화기술진보유리우중부륙성적탄감배공작，전후량년간적제이산업점GDP 비중、제삼산업점GDP비중화연발강도대표적기술진보매제고1%，중부륙성탄배방량장회분별강저2.2861%、3.8453%화48.1676%，탄강도장회분별하강1.9194%、3.1630%、48.9964%，성진화화지구개방정도대중부륙성적탄배방영향불현저，중부륙성경제증장방식대구역탄배방량화탄강도적영향시일치적；목전각성균이월과탄강도봉치，단환원미월과탄배방봉치。재경제“신상태”하，통과강화중부륙성탄감배적협동합작화과구역치리，타조중부탄교역시장화탄금융중심，조정산업결구、촉진기술진보，적겁발전저탄산업，중부륙성흔유가능제전재2030년전체도탄배방봉치。
This paper comprehensively used Tapio decoupling model, panel cointegration test, lag instrumental variable method as well as the predicted peak value of carbon emission. Based on the long-term panel data from 1995 to 2012, it analyzed the impact of economic growth pattern on carbon emission in the six provinces of Central China. The research approach is as follows：Firstly, it used Tapio decoupling model to observe the relationship between the economic growth and the total carbon emission load, the carbon emission load per capita as well as the carbon intensity in the central provinces and found the discrepancies and similarities of the provinces. Secondly, it tested whether there was a long-term equilibrium between the economic growth and the carbon emission,and after deciding on the long-term equilibrium, it further used the panel data of province and lag instrumental variable method to analyze the relationship between the economic growth concerning industrial structure, energy structure, urbanization level, foreign trade and R＆amp;D and the total carbon emission load and carbon intensity, then it summarized the impact of economic growth on the regional carbon emission. Lastly, based on the regression equation and the basic data of the six provinces of central China, it predicted when the peak value of carbon emission would come. This paper concluded that the dependency of the six provinces on fossil energy would experience a ‘weak-strong-weak’ process and the economic growth pattern would experience an‘intensive-extensive-relatively intensive’ process;there is a cointegration relationship between the economic growth and the carbon emission; for the six provinces, the elasticity of the growth of GDP per capita to the carbon emission load per capita is still large：if GDP per capita grows by 1%, the total carbon emission load grows by 1. 246 7%;there is an Environmental Kuznet Curve of carbon emission and the carbon intensity in the six provinces and thermal power generation has a positive impact on the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity：in two consecutive years, if the proportion of the thermal power generation increases by 1%, the carbon emission and the carbon intensity of the two years increase 0. 505 1% and 0. 370 3% respectively;the development and the technical progress of the secondary and tertiary industry can help the emission reduction in the provinces：in two consecutive years, if the proportions of the GDP of the secondary and tertiary industry as well as the technical progress of R＆amp;D intensity increase by 1%, the carbon emission load will decrease 2. 286 1%, 3. 845 3% as well as 48. 167 6% respectively and the carbon intensity will decrease 1. 919 4%, 3. 163 0%, 48. 996 4% respectively; in addition, the urbanization and the openness of a region have no significant impact on carbon emission;the economic growth pattern has a consistent impact on the regional carbon emission load and the carbon intensity; now, all the provinces have exceeded the peak value of carbon intensity but have not exceeded the peak value of carbon emission load; in this “new normal” economy, if the six provinces can strengthen the cooperation and the cross-regional governance, establish the carbon trading market of central China and the center of carbon finance, readjust the industrial structure and actively develop the low-carbon industry, it is quite likely that the peak value of carbon emission load of the six provinces of central China can come before 2030.