CAJ | 학술논문

面向最严格水资源管理制度的新要求,利用情景分析法刻画用水效率控制约束情景,分情景研究用水总量控制下的省区初始水量权差别化配置问题。从公平性的角度出发,在全面认知省区现实经济活动量差异、资源禀赋差异和未来发展需求差异,识别影响用水效率控制约束强弱的关键情景指标的基础上,设计省区初始水量权差别化配置指标体系,以区间数描述不确定信息,设置及描述用水效率控制约束情景WECS1、WECS2和WECS3,构建动态区间投影寻踪配置模型,利用实数编码加速遗传算法进行求解,计算获得不同用水效率控制约束情景下各省区的初始水量权。不同情景下2030年太湖流域各省区的初始水量权配置区间量测算结果表明：在任意情景下,江苏省的初始水量权最大,其次是浙江省和上海市,安徽省最少,配置结果在考虑公平的基础上充分尊重省区的差异性；江苏省的初始水量权配置区间量随着用水效率控制强度的增强而减少,浙江省和上海市的配置区间量无明显增减变化趋势,安徽省的配置区间量随着用水效率控制强度的增强而增加,且增加趋势明显。配置结果可有效促进各省区尤其是欠发达省区提高用水效率,有利于推进最严格水资源管理制度的落实。同时,分情景以区间数的形式给出配置结果,可为水量权配置决策提供更为准确的决策空间。
면향최엄격수자원관리제도적신요구,이용정경분석법각화용수효솔공제약속정경,분정경연구용수총량공제하적성구초시수량권차별화배치문제。종공평성적각도출발,재전면인지성구현실경제활동량차이、자원품부차이화미래발전수구차이,식별영향용수효솔공제약속강약적관건정경지표적기출상,설계성구초시수량권차별화배치지표체계,이구간수묘술불학정신식,설치급묘술용수효솔공제약속정경WECS1、WECS2화WECS3,구건동태구간투영심종배치모형,이용실수편마가속유전산법진행구해,계산획득불동용수효솔공제약속정경하각성구적초시수량권。불동정경하2030년태호류역각성구적초시수량권배치구간량측산결과표명：재임의정경하,강소성적초시수량권최대,기차시절강성화상해시,안휘성최소,배치결과재고필공평적기출상충분존중성구적차이성；강소성적초시수량권배치구간량수착용수효솔공제강도적증강이감소,절강성화상해시적배치구간량무명현증감변화추세,안휘성적배치구간량수착용수효솔공제강도적증강이증가,차증가추세명현。배치결과가유효촉진각성구우기시흠발체성구제고용수효솔,유리우추진최엄격수자원관리제도적락실。동시,분정경이구간수적형식급출배치결과,가위수량권배치결책제공경위준학적결책공간。
In accordance with the new requirements of the strictest water resources management system, using the scenario analysis method to depict the conditions constrained by water-use efficiency, the paper studied the initial water rights differentiated allocation among provinces restricted to total water consumption under different scenarios. Considering the variance in economic activity, natural resources endowment and future development requirements among provinces, and the key scenario indexes influencing on intensity of water-use efficiency constraint, the index system of initial water rights differentiated allocation among provinces was designed with the perspective of fairness. Taking interval number describe the uncertain information, this paper set the scenarios of water-use efficiency control as WECS1, WECS2 and WECS3. Based on the above, the dynamic interval projection pursuit allocation model for calculating initial water rights among provinces was proposed. The results of initial water rights allocation among provinces of Taihu basin in 2030 show that the initial water rights in Jiangsu Province is the largest, followed by Zhejiang Province and Shanghai city, and Anhui Province is the least. The allocation results fully consider both fairness and differences between provinces. The amount of initial water rights allocation interval of Jiangsu Province decreases with the increasing strength of water-use efficiency control, the amount of Zhejiang Province and Shanghai city has no obvious change, and the amount of Anhui Province increases with the enhancement of water-use efficiency control, the increasing trend is obvious. It is conducive not only to improve their water-use efficiency, especially in least-developed areas, but also to achieve the implementation of the strictest water resources management system. Taking interval number to provide allocation results in different scenarios offers a more accurate decision-making space for water rights allocation.