CAJ | 학술논문

水资源是人类社会发展不可或缺的重要战略资源,是社会经济可持续发展的基本保障。我国是一个缺水的国家,人均水资源只有世界平均水平的四分之一,而陕西人均水资源只相当于全国的52%,人口和经济集中的关中地区只相当于全国平均水平的15%。针对生产用水消耗问题,采用LMDI方法从经济规模效应、产业结构效应和用水技术效应三个方面分析了陕西省用水变动的驱动因素及影响程度。根据本文对陕西省2001年至2011年生产用水量变化的因素分解分析,可以得到4个结论：①陕西省生产用水消费量呈波动增长趋势,用水的增长速度远远落后于GDP的增长速度,生产用水量和经济发展呈现明显的“脱钩”效应；②经济规模效应是驱动陕西省生产用水增加的主要因素,经济增长带来的用水压力依然巨大,如果不考虑结构调整和用水效率进步,10年间陕西省用水量增长幅度将超过140%；③农业生产比重的下降是经济结构效应驱动陕西省生产用水下降的主要原因,但是其他行业的结构调整总体上对抑制用水增加起负面作用；④通过技术进步效应是抑制陕西省用水量增加的主要因素,特别是农业、石油和天然气开采业、金属矿采矿业、化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、通用专用设备制造业等耗水行业的用水效率提高有效减少了用水总需求。文章最后结合实证分析结果提出了提高陕西省水资源利用效率的相关建议：①加强用水总量控制,努力提高水资源循环利用率,从而有效抑制生产用水的快速增长；②加快产业结构调整,逐步降低高耗水产业的比重,依托陕西省的科技和教育资源优势,大力发展装备制造业、高技术产业和现代服务业,快速提高高效用水行业的经济结构比例；③强化企业生产过程和工序用水定额管理,通过阶梯水价、节水奖励政策促进企业积极研发使用低耗水的生产工艺；④加强农业节水技术的应用,兴建高效节水灌溉工程,降低农业用水量。水資源是人類社會髮展不可或缺的重要戰略資源,是社會經濟可持續髮展的基本保障。我國是一箇缺水的國傢,人均水資源隻有世界平均水平的四分之一,而陝西人均水資源隻相噹于全國的52%,人口和經濟集中的關中地區隻相噹于全國平均水平的15%。針對生產用水消耗問題,採用LMDI方法從經濟規模效應、產業結構效應和用水技術效應三箇方麵分析瞭陝西省用水變動的驅動因素及影響程度。根據本文對陝西省2001年至2011年生產用水量變化的因素分解分析,可以得到4箇結論：①陝西省生產用水消費量呈波動增長趨勢,用水的增長速度遠遠落後于GDP的增長速度,生產用水量和經濟髮展呈現明顯的“脫鉤”效應；②經濟規模效應是驅動陝西省生產用水增加的主要因素,經濟增長帶來的用水壓力依然巨大,如果不攷慮結構調整和用水效率進步,10年間陝西省用水量增長幅度將超過140%；③農業生產比重的下降是經濟結構效應驅動陝西省生產用水下降的主要原因,但是其他行業的結構調整總體上對抑製用水增加起負麵作用；④通過技術進步效應是抑製陝西省用水量增加的主要因素,特彆是農業、石油和天然氣開採業、金屬礦採礦業、化學工業、金屬冶煉及壓延加工業、通用專用設備製造業等耗水行業的用水效率提高有效減少瞭用水總需求。文章最後結閤實證分析結果提齣瞭提高陝西省水資源利用效率的相關建議：①加彊用水總量控製,努力提高水資源循環利用率,從而有效抑製生產用水的快速增長；②加快產業結構調整,逐步降低高耗水產業的比重,依託陝西省的科技和教育資源優勢,大力髮展裝備製造業、高技術產業和現代服務業,快速提高高效用水行業的經濟結構比例；③彊化企業生產過程和工序用水定額管理,通過階梯水價、節水獎勵政策促進企業積極研髮使用低耗水的生產工藝；④加彊農業節水技術的應用,興建高效節水灌溉工程,降低農業用水量。
수자원시인류사회발전불가혹결적중요전략자원,시사회경제가지속발전적기본보장。아국시일개결수적국가,인균수자원지유세계평균수평적사분지일,이협서인균수자원지상당우전국적52%,인구화경제집중적관중지구지상당우전국평균수평적15%。침대생산용수소모문제,채용LMDI방법종경제규모효응、산업결구효응화용수기술효응삼개방면분석료합서성용수변동적구동인소급영향정도。근거본문대합서성2001년지2011년생산용수량변화적인소분해분석,가이득도4개결론：①합서성생산용수소비량정파동증장추세,용수적증장속도원원락후우GDP적증장속도,생산용수량화경제발전정현명현적“탈구”효응；②경제규모효응시구동합서성생산용수증가적주요인소,경제증장대래적용수압력의연거대,여과불고필결구조정화용수효솔진보,10년간합서성용수량증장폭도장초과140%；③농업생산비중적하강시경제결구효응구동합서성생산용수하강적주요원인,단시기타행업적결구조정총체상대억제용수증가기부면작용；④통과기술진보효응시억제합서성용수량증가적주요인소,특별시농업、석유화천연기개채업、금속광채광업、화학공업、금속야련급압연가공업、통용전용설비제조업등모수행업적용수효솔제고유효감소료용수총수구。문장최후결합실증분석결과제출료제고합서성수자원이용효솔적상관건의：①가강용수총량공제,노력제고수자원순배이용솔,종이유효억제생산용수적쾌속증장；②가쾌산업결구조정,축보강저고모수산업적비중,의탁합서성적과기화교육자원우세,대력발전장비제조업、고기술산업화현대복무업,쾌속제고고효용수행업적경제결구비례；③강화기업생산과정화공서용수정액관리,통과계제수개、절수장려정책촉진기업적겁연발사용저모수적생산공예；④가강농업절수기술적응용,흥건고효절수관개공정,강저농업용수량。
Water is an important strategic resource in human social development and the basic guarantee for socioeconomic sustainable development. China is a water shortage country and the average per capita water resource only equals to a quarter of that in the world. As for Shaanxi Province, the average per capita water resource equals to 52% of the national average level. For water consumption issues of production, this article used LMDI method to analyze driving factors and impacts of water consumption changes in Shaanxi Province from three aspects including scale effect, structure effect and technique effect. Based on analysis of the driving factors decomposition of water consumption change, four conclusions are as follows：①Quantity of water consumption in Shaanxi Province is in the fluctuating growth trend, the growth rate of GDP is far beyond that of water consumption. ②Economic scale effect is the main factor to drive water consumption increase in Shaanxi Province, the water consumption pressure brought by economic development is still enormous. If structure adjustment and water consumption efficiency increase are not considered, the increase rate of water usage in Shaanxi Province will be over 140% in 10 years. ③Decrease of agriculture proportion is the main reason for decline of production water consumption, but in the whole structure adjustments of other sectors have negative effects on suppressing water consumption increase. ④Technique effect is the main factor for suppressing water consumption increase. Water use efficiency is effective to reduce the total water demand, especially in high water consumption industries including agriculture, oil, mining, chemistry, etc. With all of these conclusions, this article proposed relative suggestions as follows：①Strengthen total control of water consumption, increase recycling rate of water resource, and effectively suppress the increase of water consumption. ②Speed up industrial restructuring, gradually decrease proportion of high water consumption industries, and vigorously develop the efficient industries including manufacturing, modern service, etc. ③Strengthen quota management of water consumption during production process, encourage enterprises to develop and use water efficiency technique by price ladder and incentive policy. ④Strengthen the usage of water efficiency technique in agriculture industry, encourage water saving irrigation, and reduce water consumption in agriculture industry.