CAJ | 학술논문

作为气候和自然条件依赖性很强的产业,邮轮旅游本身具有明显的季节性特征。以2005—2011年北美地区全部30198个航次邮轮乘客的季度数据和月度数据为样本,分别利用X-12-ARIMA和TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型对北美邮轮市场的季度数据和月度数据进行了分析。季节调整后的数据表明,北美邮轮市场呈现持续扩张的长期趋势。与季度季节性相比,该地区邮轮旅游表现出更强的月度季节性特征,其中1月、3月、7月和12月是相对旺季,而5月、9月、10月和11月是相对淡季。总体来看,北美邮轮旅游受季节性因素和不规则因素的影响较弱,一方面由于当前邮轮旅游的需求主要受运力驱动,邮轮满舱率普遍较高;另一方面由于邮轮公司可以在季节交替时段通过船舶重配或重置（repositioning）策略来规避季节性的不良影响。
작위기후화자연조건의뢰성흔강적산업,유륜여유본신구유명현적계절성특정。이2005—2011년북미지구전부30198개항차유륜승객적계도수거화월도수거위양본,분별이용X-12-ARIMA화TRAMO/SEATS계절조정모형대북미유륜시장적계도수거화월도수거진행료분석。계절조정후적수거표명,북미유륜시장정현지속확장적장기추세。여계도계절성상비,해지구유륜여유표현출경강적월도계절성특정,기중1월、3월、7월화12월시상대왕계,이5월、9월、10월화11월시상대담계。총체래간,북미유륜여유수계절성인소화불규칙인소적영향교약,일방면유우당전유륜여유적수구주요수운력구동,유륜만창솔보편교고;령일방면유우유륜공사가이재계절교체시단통과선박중배혹중치（repositioning）책략래규피계절성적불량영향。
Seasonality has long been regarded as a feature of the tourism industry. Many tourism destinations and relevant organizations are suffering from this phenomenon every year. Tourism seasonality is viewed as problematic but least understood by not only the academic community but also the domains of policy making and practical management. Both researchers and practitioners are trying to overcome this troublesome issue. As a tourism sector which is significantly dependent on climate and nature conditions, cruise tourism should reflect obvious seasonality. In recent years, the cruise industry has evolved considerably and emerged to become one of the fastest growing and most dynamic segments of the entire tourism and leisure travel market, in terms of both passengers and capacities. On a global basis, the cruising sector is overwhelmed by North America, which is acknowledged to be the largest in the world, with an average market share of over 90% before 2000 and over 70% between 2001 and 2011. Seasonality in the North America is various, which gives the cruise sector both challenges and opportunities to avoid negative influences from season variation, as well as offer new products to their customers. In this article we explore the seasonality of the biggest cruise market in the world using data reported by the Maritime Administration of U.S. Department of Transportation. Using passenger time series data from 30 198 cruises in North America during the period of 2005--2011, the paper explores the characteristics of cruise tourism seasonality in this region. Two seasonal adjustment methods X-12-ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS are used to identify and compare quarterly and monthly seasonality features, including the seasonal component, the trend component, the cyclical component and the irregular component, in the North American market. The results derived from seasonal adjustment illustrate a long-term trend of expansion in North America in terms of cruise passengers. In the North American market, moderate cruise tourism seasonality is observed. The monthly seasonality with an average seasonal component value less than 4% is stronger than the quarterly seasonality with a much higher （but less than 10% ） average seasonal component value. January, March, July and December are the peak seasons for cruise tourism, while May, September, October and November are low seasons. Additionally, the findings show that the irregular component has insignificant impacts on the cruising sector in North America. In recent years, the cruise market shows a very high （over 100% since 2003） double-berth-based capacity utilization, because the cruise market is motivated by capacity supplies to a great extent. This fact could partially explain why the current study offers a phenomenon that cruise tourism is not significantly influenced by seasonal and irregular components. In addition, to avoid the influence of seasonality caused by natural conditions, cruise companies usually relocate/reposition their ships at points of seasonal variation. For example, repositioning cruises from New York to California and from Tampa to Boston may occur in November and in April, respectively.