CAJ | 학술논문

中国体育产业发展速度较快,规模不断扩大,产业领域不断拓展,展现出朝阳产业的显性特征;但经济贡献度相对较低,处于＂微笑曲线＂的低端,且属于比较典型的硬产业,亟待优化。面对＂新常态＂,中国体育产业应该抓住其方式转变、结构调整、政策红利进一步释放带来的良好机遇,实现自身转型升级,逐步迈入发展的快车道。依据2006-2013年中国体育产业的时间序列数据,采用灰色预测模型GM（1,1）,得到中国体育产业增加值到2020年将突破1万亿,2025年突破2.5万亿,发展前景整体向好。中国体育产业预期目标的达成需要以新常态为走向,顺势而为,加快体制改革,建立切实可行的短期和中长期目标,逐步推动体育产业实现跨越式发展。
중국체육산업발전속도교쾌,규모불단확대,산업영역불단탁전,전현출조양산업적현성특정;단경제공헌도상대교저,처우＂미소곡선＂적저단,차속우비교전형적경산업,극대우화。면대＂신상태＂,중국체육산업응해조주기방식전변、결구조정、정책홍리진일보석방대래적량호궤우,실현자신전형승급,축보매입발전적쾌차도。의거2006-2013년중국체육산업적시간서렬수거,채용회색예측모형GM（1,1）,득도중국체육산업증가치도2020년장돌파1만억,2025년돌파2.5만억,발전전경정체향호。중국체육산업예기목표적체성수요이신상태위주향,순세이위,가쾌체제개혁,건립절실가행적단기화중장기목표,축보추동체육산업실현과월식발전。
The rapid development, expansion of scope and area of the Chinese sports industry has made it a mainstay industry. However, the economic contribution of the sports industry to the national economy is low. Under the new norm, the Chinese sports industry should transform the ways and structures, utilize the governmental policies to upgrade and develop. It can be estimated based on the time series data of the Chinese sports industry from 2006 to 2013, and the grey prediction model GM （1, 1）, the added value of the sports industry by 2020 will break through 1 trillion RMB and up to 2. 5 trillion RMB in 2025. To achieve this goal, short-term and long-term plans should be made and a leap forward devdopment is expected.