CAJ | 학술논문

旅游发展对目的地工业部门的影响迄今为止尚处于争议之中。本文运用VAR协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等动态经济计量分析方法对桂林市旅游发展与工业增加值比重变化之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,在经济不受任何干预的条件下,旅游业的扩张将挤出目的地工业投资资本,转移工业劳动力而造成工业增长水平的下降,给目的地带来去工业化效应;但旅游发展带来的价格效应不明显。旅游目的地可以通过制定产业政策对生产要素的流动方向进行控制,以有效地避免旅游发展带来的去工业化问题。
여유발전대목적지공업부문적영향흘금위지상처우쟁의지중。본문운용VAR협정분석、격란걸인과검험、맥충향응함수화방차분해등동태경제계량분석방법대계림시여유발전여공업증가치비중변화지간적관계진행료실증연구。연구결과표명,재경제불수임하간예적조건하,여유업적확장장제출목적지공업투자자본,전이공업노동력이조성공업증장수평적하강,급목적지대래거공업화효응;단여유발전대래적개격효응불명현。여유목적지가이통과제정산업정책대생산요소적류동방향진행공제,이유효지피면여유발전대래적거공업화문제。
The economic impact of tourism on the growth of industry sector is still a topic hotly debated. Using dynamic economic analysis methods of VAR co-integration analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition, this paper made an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism development and the changes of the proportion of industrial added value in Guilin. The results show that, in a completely free market and without any intervention, the expansion of tourism industry may crowd out capital invested in secondary sectors, and absorbs the industrial labor forces, which may lead to a decline in the level of industrial growth, and bring in the result of de-industrialization. The price effect led by tourism expansion i＇s found to be unclear in Guilin, and the effect of de-industrialization is not inevitable. By intentionally developing competitive industries, destinations can overcome this de-industrialization effects led by tourism expansion successfully.