国际经贸探索
國際經貿探索
국제경무탐색
International Economics and Trade Research
2015年
5期
34~46
,共null页
贸易规模 贸易结构 贸易竞争力 谷物贸易 修正的CMS模型
貿易規模 貿易結構 貿易競爭力 穀物貿易 脩正的CMS模型
무역규모 무역결구 무역경쟁력 곡물무역 수정적CMS모형
trade scale; trade structure; trade competitiveness; cereals trade; modifiedCMS model
文章根据UN COMTRADE数据库数据,在分析1995~2012年中国谷物贸易变动现状的基础上,利用修正的CMS模型,从贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易竞争力三个方面分阶段对中国谷物进出口变动进行了双向分解,并从动态视角实证分析了影响中国谷物进出口变动的因素。研究表明,在贸易发展的不同阶段,贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易竞争力对中国谷物进出口变动的作用方向和作用程度不尽相同,但贸易竞争力一直是影响中国谷物进出口变动的主要决定因素;在出口方面,国内谷物竞争力下降是近年来中国谷物出口减少的主导因素,出口结构和国际市场需求也是影响中国谷物出口变动的重要因素;在进口方面,近年来中国谷物进口增加的主导因素是国外谷物竞争力强于国内谷物,进口结构和国际市场供给也是影响中国谷物进口变动的重要因素。
文章根據UN COMTRADE數據庫數據,在分析1995~2012年中國穀物貿易變動現狀的基礎上,利用脩正的CMS模型,從貿易規模、貿易結構和貿易競爭力三箇方麵分階段對中國穀物進齣口變動進行瞭雙嚮分解,併從動態視角實證分析瞭影響中國穀物進齣口變動的因素。研究錶明,在貿易髮展的不同階段,貿易規模、貿易結構和貿易競爭力對中國穀物進齣口變動的作用方嚮和作用程度不儘相同,但貿易競爭力一直是影響中國穀物進齣口變動的主要決定因素;在齣口方麵,國內穀物競爭力下降是近年來中國穀物齣口減少的主導因素,齣口結構和國際市場需求也是影響中國穀物齣口變動的重要因素;在進口方麵,近年來中國穀物進口增加的主導因素是國外穀物競爭力彊于國內穀物,進口結構和國際市場供給也是影響中國穀物進口變動的重要因素。
문장근거UN COMTRADE수거고수거,재분석1995~2012년중국곡물무역변동현상적기출상,이용수정적CMS모형,종무역규모、무역결구화무역경쟁력삼개방면분계단대중국곡물진출구변동진행료쌍향분해,병종동태시각실증분석료영향중국곡물진출구변동적인소。연구표명,재무역발전적불동계단,무역규모、무역결구화무역경쟁력대중국곡물진출구변동적작용방향화작용정도불진상동,단무역경쟁력일직시영향중국곡물진출구변동적주요결정인소;재출구방면,국내곡물경쟁력하강시근년래중국곡물출구감소적주도인소,출구결구화국제시장수구야시영향중국곡물출구변동적중요인소;재진구방면,근년래중국곡물진구증가적주도인소시국외곡물경쟁력강우국내곡물,진구결구화국제시장공급야시영향중국곡물진구변동적중요인소。
Based on the data from UN COMTRADE Database, this paper analyzes the present situation of the change of China＇s cereals trade from 1995 to 2012, and by using modified CMS model, it conducts a two-way decomposition of the change of China＇s cereals import and export from the three aspects of trade scale, trade structure and trade competitiveness, and analyzes the influencing factors of the change of China＇s cereals import and export. The results show that, during different trade periods, the influencing direction and the influencing degree of trade scale, trade structure and trade competitiveness on the change of China＇s cereals import and export are also different, and trade competitiveness has always been the major determinant which influences the change of China＇s cereals import and export. On the side of export, decrease in the competitiveness of domestic cereals is the dominant factor which leads to the decrease in China＇s cereals export in recent years, and export structure and international market demand are also the important factors which influence the change of China＇ s cereals export. On the side of import, the dominant factor which leads to the increase in China＇s cereals import in recent years is that the competitiveness of foreign cereals is stronger than that of domestic cereals, and import structure and international market supply are also the important factors which influence the change of China＇ s cereals import.
