CAJ | 학술논문

文章在一个汇率不完全传递的开放经济动态随机一般均衡模型框架下,对巴西、南非和俄罗斯的货币政策规则进行了贝叶斯估计。研究结果表明：巴西和南非央行实施通货膨胀目标制以后货币政策规则对汇率波动反应系数较低;而俄罗斯央行则面临稳定通胀和稳定汇率的双重货币政策目标,所以俄罗斯货币政策规则对汇率波动反应系数较高,较高的汇率波动反应系数能否稳定俄罗斯的通胀和产出则取决于外生冲击的类型。因此,各国央行应妥善协调政策利率和外汇市场干预,加大宏观经济领域风险识别与监控,积极促进各国之间货币政策合作。
문장재일개회솔불완전전체적개방경제동태수궤일반균형모형광가하,대파서、남비화아라사적화폐정책규칙진행료패협사고계。연구결과표명：파서화남비앙행실시통화팽창목표제이후화폐정책규칙대회솔파동반응계수교저;이아라사앙행칙면림은정통창화은정회솔적쌍중화폐정책목표,소이아라사화폐정책규칙대회솔파동반응계수교고,교고적회솔파동반응계수능부은정아라사적통창화산출칙취결우외생충격적류형。인차,각국앙행응타선협조정책리솔화외회시장간예,가대굉관경제영역풍험식별여감공,적겁촉진각국지간화폐정책합작。
Based on a small open-economy＇s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model, the paper makes a Bayesian estimation of Brazil, South Africa and Russia＇ monetary policy rules. The empirical results show that： the response of Brazil and South Africa＇s central banks to exchange rate movements is significantly small after their adoption of Inflation Targeting Regime. The response coefficient of Russia＇ central bank is relatively bigger when facing the inflation and exchange rate targeting anchor. Whether the bigger response coefficient of Russia＇ central bank can help to stabilize its domestic inflation and output or not depends on the style of shocks. So central banks of BRICS countries should coordinate their monetary policy rates and foreign exchange market intervention, strengthen their supervision on the risk identification and risk control of macro economy, and actively promote harmony and coordination between their monetary policies.