CAJ | 학술논문

基于虚拟耕地的视角，本文提出了一种以解决耕地资源短缺为目标的农产品进口策略，并运用中国农业政策分析模型对策略效果进行情景模拟分析。研究表明：实施全面开放的油料大豆进口策略，比基准期节约出176万公顷豆田，其中123万公顷转化为粮田，使谷物自给率提高1．35％；实施全面开放的油料大豆进口和有限开放的棉花进口策略，比基准期节约出243万公顷棉花、大豆的种植田，其中142万公顷转化为粮田，使谷物自给率提高1．85％；实施全面开放的油料大豆进口和有限开放的棉花与玉米进口策略，能够优先保证口粮的绝对安全，使稻谷、小麦的自给率分别提高2％和2．2％。最后，提出了相应的政策建议。
기우허의경지적시각，본문제출료일충이해결경지자원단결위목표적농산품진구책략，병운용중국농업정책분석모형대책략효과진행정경모의분석。연구표명：실시전면개방적유료대두진구책략，비기준기절약출176만공경두전，기중123만공경전화위량전，사곡물자급솔제고1．35％；실시전면개방적유료대두진구화유한개방적면화진구책략，비기준기절약출243만공경면화、대두적충식전，기중142만공경전화위량전，사곡물자급솔제고1．85％；실시전면개방적유료대두진구화유한개방적면화여옥미진구책략，능구우선보증구량적절대안전，사도곡、소맥적자급솔분별제고2％화2．2％。최후，제출료상응적정책건의。
This paper explores the import strategy of agricultural products for solving China’s arable land shortages from the perspective of virtual farmland, and uses Chinese Agricultural Policy Analysis Model to simulate the strategy effects.The results show, if implementing fully liberalization of soybean imports, China will save 1.76 million hectares of soybean fields, of which 1.23 million hectares con-verted into grain fields, and grain self-sufficiency rate increased by 1.35%; if along with implemen-ting limited liberalization of cotton imports, China will save 2.43 million hectares of cotton and soy-bean fields, of which 1.42 million hectares can be converted into grain fields, and grain self-sufficien-cy rate improved by 1.85%;if further along with implementing limited liberalization of maize imports, China will ensure grain ration security and improve the self-sufficiency of rice and wheat by 2%and 2. 2%.According to above results, this paper presents policy suggestions.