CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过对劳动争议发生机制的分析和国际经验的比较，提出劳动争议的逆周期性假说，即劳动争议在经济繁荣时相对下降，在经济衰退时相对增加，并利用省际面板数据进行实证检验，证实了这一假说。回归结果表明，正向的GDP缺口每增加1个百分点，劳动争议发生频率将下降2．3个百分点，且周期波动对集体劳动争议发生频率的影响远大于个体劳动争议，因此，应特别关注经济下行对劳资关系的影响，完善劳资谈判制度，以促进劳资关系和谐和社会稳定。
본문통과대노동쟁의발생궤제적분석화국제경험적비교，제출노동쟁의적역주기성가설，즉노동쟁의재경제번영시상대하강，재경제쇠퇴시상대증가，병이용성제면판수거진행실증검험，증실료저일가설。회귀결과표명，정향적GDP결구매증가1개백분점，노동쟁의발생빈솔장하강2．3개백분점，차주기파동대집체노동쟁의발생빈솔적영향원대우개체노동쟁의，인차，응특별관주경제하행대로자관계적영향，완선로자담판제도，이촉진로자관계화해화사회은정。
Through the analysis of the labor dispute model and the comparison of international experience, the counter- cyclical hypothesis is proposed that the labor dispute relatively declines during the economic boom and increases during the recession, with the provincial panel data to test and confirm the hypothesis. Regression results show that when the positive GDP gap increases every 1%, the labor dispute frequency will fail by 2.3 %. Moreover, the counter-cyclical effect of collective labor dispute is greater than individual labor dispute. Therefore, the economic downturn impact on labor relations should be aware, and the system of collective bargaining should be improved, to promote labor relations harmonious and social stability.