CAJ | 학술논문

自和平与重返社会方案实施以来,阿富汗政府尚未与塔利班领导层实现实质性的会谈。尽管在招安方面取得了一定成就,但也存在较大局限,和解现状堪忧。双方为谈判设定的条件悬殊、双方内部对和解的意见不一,以及国内外进程的影响是导致和谈陷入停滞的主要原因。而和平与重返社会方案自身存在缺陷,也导致招安有所成就但局限明显。在基于实力对比与意愿的分析上,认为在双方实力对比没有发生根本性变化的前提下,未来阿富汗政府与塔利班仍会继续现有规模的冲突,真正和解的道路将漫长而曲折。
자화평여중반사회방안실시이래,아부한정부상미여탑리반령도층실현실질성적회담。진관재초안방면취득료일정성취,단야존재교대국한,화해현상감우。쌍방위담판설정적조건현수、쌍방내부대화해적의견불일,이급국내외진정적영향시도치화담함입정체적주요원인。이화평여중반사회방안자신존재결함,야도치초안유소성취단국한명현。재기우실력대비여의원적분석상,인위재쌍방실력대비몰유발생근본성변화적전제하,미래아부한정부여탑리반잉회계속현유규모적충돌,진정화해적도로장만장이곡절。
Since the inauguration of the peace and reintegration program, Afghan government has not yet achieved any substantive talk with the Taliban leadership. Although amnesty has been offered and considered, limitations exist. Reconciliation is still a big problem. There is a great gap between the conditions offered by both sides for negotiations, and even within each side disagreements exist. This situation is worsened by domestic and international interferences besides the inherent defects that the peace and reintegration program has. Based on the analysis of both sides＇ strength and motivation for reconciliation, this paper suggests that if nothing happens to alter the strength of both sides, the current conflicts between the Afghan government and the Taliban will continue and true reconciliation will be difficult to achieve.