CAJ | 학술논문

现有理论认为，换届选举的政治不确定性能够导致公司投资水平降低，但鉴于我国中央政府换届选举与西方国家政治体制不同，我国中央领导人换届是否影响企业投资决策是一个值得探究的命题。本文以中国共产党第十八次代表大会为天然试验田，采用A股上市公司为研究样本，实证检验中央政府领导人权力交接对公司投资的影响。研究发现，在中央政府换届的年份，全体样本公司的投资支出相比其他年份显著下降；进一步地，根据所有权性质进行分类检验后发现，在中央领导人换届年份，非国有上市公司投资支出所受影响显著大于国有企业。这表明，非国有企业对国家层面的政治不确定性更为敏感，中央政府换届对其影响程度更大。本文的研究不但在国内将领导人换届选举对公司投资的影响由地方拓展至国家层面，也将政治因素与公司投资相关研究由西方普选制国家拓展至中国式特色选举国家。
현유이론인위，환계선거적정치불학정성능구도치공사투자수평강저，단감우아국중앙정부환계선거여서방국가정치체제불동，아국중앙령도인환계시부영향기업투자결책시일개치득탐구적명제。본문이중국공산당제십팔차대표대회위천연시험전，채용A고상시공사위연구양본，실증검험중앙정부령도인권력교접대공사투자적영향。연구발현，재중앙정부환계적년빈，전체양본공사적투자지출상비기타년빈현저하강；진일보지，근거소유권성질진행분류검험후발현，재중앙령도인환계년빈，비국유상시공사투자지출소수영향현저대우국유기업。저표명，비국유기업대국가층면적정치불학정성경위민감，중앙정부환계대기영향정도경대。본문적연구불단재국내장령도인환계선거대공사투자적영향유지방탁전지국가층면，야장정치인소여공사투자상관연구유서방보선제국가탁전지중국식특색선거국가。
The theoretical literature has recognized that political uncertainty leads firms to reduce investment expenditures, but the election of the central people＇s government of China is different from the western political system. There is worth studying the proposition whether the election of central people＇s government of China is affecting enterprises investment decision. Using the data of Chinese listed companies between 2010-2013 as the research sample, this paper aims to analyze the effect of political uncertainty on corporate investment. During election years, firms reduce investment expenditures relative to normal years, controlling for firms＇ characteristic and economic growth. Further study, we find that the effect of political uncertainty on corporate investment is difference between SOEs and non - SOEs. Non - SOEs reduce more investment expenditures relative to SOEs. This paper highlights the important role of that a country＇ election play in shaping a firms investment policies. These findingssuggest that political uncertainty affectscorporate investment both in western countries and China.