CAJ | 학술논문

文章以后凯恩斯主义货币内生论为理论依据，将货币“中性”与“非中性”之争和“内生”与“外生”之争纳入到一个框架下进行研究，以探求货币政策操作的“内生”逻辑。采用我国2001年第1季度至2013年第3季度的季度数据，构建联立方程模型，运用协整检验和系统估计方法分别考察货币政策操作的短期和长期效果以及货币内生创造机制的根源。实证结果表明，M2对名义GDP增长短期和长期均呈现中性；M2短期内会加剧CPI的波动率，但长期内和CPI增长率没有共同的趋势；存款与M2有共同的长期趋势，短期内二者呈现显著的正相关性而且显著性不会随着结构变化、滞后项和控制变量的加入而减弱；贷款与存款之间也存在长期的共同趋势，短期内贷款对存款的解释力度是高度显著且稳定的。以上四点主要结论对我国货币当局制定货币政策提供了重要的指导意义。
문장이후개은사주의화폐내생론위이론의거，장화폐“중성”여“비중성”지쟁화“내생”여“외생”지쟁납입도일개광가하진행연구，이탐구화폐정책조작적“내생”라집。채용아국2001년제1계도지2013년제3계도적계도수거，구건련립방정모형，운용협정검험화계통고계방법분별고찰화폐정책조작적단기화장기효과이급화폐내생창조궤제적근원。실증결과표명，M2대명의GDP증장단기화장기균정현중성；M2단기내회가극CPI적파동솔，단장기내화CPI증장솔몰유공동적추세；존관여M2유공동적장기추세，단기내이자정현현저적정상관성이차현저성불회수착결구변화、체후항화공제변량적가입이감약；대관여존관지간야존재장기적공동추세，단기내대관대존관적해석력도시고도현저차은정적。이상사점주요결론대아국화폐당국제정화폐정책제공료중요적지도의의。
Based on post - Keynesian endogenous money theory, the study brings together about the ＂neutrality＂ and ＂non - neutrality＂ of money and ＂endogeneity＂ and ＂exogeneity＂ of money under one structure in order to explore an endogenous logic of operation of monetary policy. Adopting from the first quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2013, by constructing simultaneous equation model and co - integration analysis, and using systematic estimation method, the study analyze the short - run and long- run effect of monetary policy and the origin of endogenous money creation process. The empirical results show that, M2 is neutral to nominal GDP growth both in the short -run and the long -run; M2 strengthens the vibration of CPI in the short -run but in the long -run, no common trend is obvious; deposit has the same long -run trend with M2 and in the short- run, the significant positive relationship between them can＇t be changed when control variables are added and structure break are considered; loan and deposit share a common trend in the long run and the explanatory power of loan to deposit is significant and stable in the short term. The four conclusions above can give some suggestions to monetary authorities.