西部论坛
西部論罈
서부론단
West Forum
2015年
3期
46~54
,共null页
军人养老保险制度 转轨成本 军队统筹 社会统筹账户 个人账户 年金账户 隐性债务显性化 保险基金管理 养老保险制度衔接
軍人養老保險製度 轉軌成本 軍隊統籌 社會統籌賬戶 箇人賬戶 年金賬戶 隱性債務顯性化 保險基金管理 養老保險製度銜接
군인양로보험제도 전궤성본 군대통주 사회통주장호 개인장호 년금장호 은성채무현성화 보험기금관리 양로보험제도함접
military pension insurance system;transition cost;military planning;pooling accounts;individual accounts;annuity accounts;explicitation of recessive debt;insurance fund management;link-up of pension insurance system
我国现行军人养老保险是军队统筹，且保障范围狭窄、制度衔接不畅、实际养老待遇较低、财政负担过重、基金管理效率低下；为实现养老保险制度全民统筹和切实保障军人的养老权益，应构建社会统筹与个人账户相结合、辅以年金账户的新型军人养老保险制度。军人养老保险制度的转轨成本来源于当前军人养老保险制度下隐性债务的显性化，采用系统动力学模型对军人养老保险制度的转轨成本进行模拟测算，结果表明：截至2090年底转轨成本将全部显性化，“老人”和“中人”的转轨成本都呈先增后减的趋势，2035—2065年的转轨成本最高；借助社会统筹账户资金积累的缓冲和人口年龄与人口结构的变化，能够分散制度转轨带来的财务支付风险，改革不会对政府财政带来巨大压力。因此，应坚持养老保险社会统筹的改革方向，积极推进军人养老保险制度改革。
我國現行軍人養老保險是軍隊統籌，且保障範圍狹窄、製度銜接不暢、實際養老待遇較低、財政負擔過重、基金管理效率低下；為實現養老保險製度全民統籌和切實保障軍人的養老權益，應構建社會統籌與箇人賬戶相結閤、輔以年金賬戶的新型軍人養老保險製度。軍人養老保險製度的轉軌成本來源于噹前軍人養老保險製度下隱性債務的顯性化，採用繫統動力學模型對軍人養老保險製度的轉軌成本進行模擬測算，結果錶明：截至2090年底轉軌成本將全部顯性化，“老人”和“中人”的轉軌成本都呈先增後減的趨勢，2035—2065年的轉軌成本最高；藉助社會統籌賬戶資金積纍的緩遲和人口年齡與人口結構的變化，能夠分散製度轉軌帶來的財務支付風險，改革不會對政府財政帶來巨大壓力。因此，應堅持養老保險社會統籌的改革方嚮，積極推進軍人養老保險製度改革。
아국현행군인양로보험시군대통주，차보장범위협착、제도함접불창、실제양로대우교저、재정부담과중、기금관리효솔저하；위실현양로보험제도전민통주화절실보장군인적양로권익，응구건사회통주여개인장호상결합、보이년금장호적신형군인양로보험제도。군인양로보험제도적전궤성본래원우당전군인양로보험제도하은성채무적현성화，채용계통동역학모형대군인양로보험제도적전궤성본진행모의측산，결과표명：절지2090년저전궤성본장전부현성화，“노인”화“중인”적전궤성본도정선증후감적추세，2035—2065년적전궤성본최고；차조사회통주장호자금적루적완충화인구년령여인구결구적변화，능구분산제도전궤대래적재무지부풍험，개혁불회대정부재정대래거대압력。인차，응견지양로보험사회통주적개혁방향，적겁추진군인양로보험제도개혁。
Planned as a whole by the military, the current military pension system has some shortcoming such as narrow insurance coverage, weak link-up between systems, low pension level in practice, overloaded finance, low-efficient fund management. In order to plan the pension system by the nation and insure military pension right, a new military pension system should be constructed including pooling accounts, individual accounts and annuity accounts. The transition cost of military pension system comes from explicitation of recessive debt under the system of present military pension system. By system dynamics approach, the transition cost of military pension system is estimated. The results show that by the end of 2090, the transition costs is fully explicit; both transition cost of ＂old＂ and ＂middle aged＂ appear a high-to-low trend; from 2035 to 2065, the cost reaches a peak value. The pooling accounts capital accumulation buffer and the changes of population age structure, financial payment risks caused by system transition can be well dispersed, and the reform will not bring enormous pressure on government finances. Therefore, the direction of social overall planning for pension insurance should be held on and the reform of military pension system should be positively promoted.
