CAJ | 학술논문

进入新世纪以来，北京市流动人口规模增长了1倍多。其中，省内流动人口规模增长了4倍多，省际流动人口规模增长了1．86倍。综合运用灰色预测模型和Logistic模型，以及综合运用ARIMA模型和Logistic模型，得到2020年北京市外省流入人口规模的预测区间为[867．50，1045．29]（单位：万）。即预计到2020年，北京市外省流入人口规模最低为867．50万人，最高为1045．29万人。相应地，预计到2020年，北京市外省流入人口规模的最低年均增长率为1．25％，最高年均增长率为3．98％。
진입신세기이래，북경시류동인구규모증장료1배다。기중，성내류동인구규모증장료4배다，성제류동인구규모증장료1．86배。종합운용회색예측모형화Logistic모형，이급종합운용ARIMA모형화Logistic모형，득도2020년북경시외성류입인구규모적예측구간위[867．50，1045．29]（단위：만）。즉예계도2020년，북경시외성류입인구규모최저위867．50만인，최고위1045．29만인。상응지，예계도2020년，북경시외성류입인구규모적최저년균증장솔위1．25％，최고년균증장솔위3．98％。
Since entering the new century, the floating population in Beijing has more than doubled. The internal floating population whose ac- counts are in Beijing province has increased more than 4 times. Meanwhile, the interprovincial floating population has increased nearly 2 times. In view of the source analysis of the interprovincial floating population, Hebei Province, Henan Province, Shandong Province and Sichuan Province are still the main sources. Considering the perspective of whereabouts, the interprovineial floating population mainly locates in Chaoyang District, Haidian District, Changping District and Daxing District. In addition, the main cause of flowing in Beijing is working or engaging in trade. On the basis of present condition analysis of floating population in Beijing, the paper connects the Grey model with Logistic model, as well as the combina- tion of ARIMA model and Logistic model to forecast the development trend of the interprovincial floating population in Beijing. The forecasting re- sult shows that the minimum size of the interprovincial floating population in Beijing is 8. 675 million which annual rate of growth is 1.25%. Con- versely, the maximum size is 10. 4529 million with average annual growth of about 3.98%.